TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Wimbledon Final – Alcaraz vs. Sinner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sinner of Alcaraz , Sinner
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$824,661
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$871,685

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $824,661 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 431 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9a75…4347backed Sinner 74c115,229$85,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,689.642347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fdc…3ad2backed Alcaraz 49c68,877$33,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,810.213641.7%15 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Sinner 65c53,443$34,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,633.5228043.2%121 W · 159 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Sinner 50c33,726$16,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,863.071,19348.9%583 W · 610 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7435…a620backed Alcaraz 51c32,624$16,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,7952263.6%14 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Sinner 63c31,150$19,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,535.410845.4%49 W · 59 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce37…b17bbacked Alcaraz 45c30,925$13,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,849.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0254…34b3backed Sinner 71c29,653$21,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,618.48475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf22e…f52cbacked Alcaraz 50c22,812$11,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,484.145525.5%14 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x94a1…ec2fbacked Sinner 51c16,491$8,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,145.591838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Sinner 48c15,394$7,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,004.6239144.2%173 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb6…9452backed Alcaraz 28c14,900$4,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,242.91330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e78…e415backed Alcaraz 15c13,223$2,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,023.75128.3%1 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid-78.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1484…cafebacked Sinner 50c11,387$5,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,693.54548.9%22 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5646…3819backed Alcaraz 52c11,056$5,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,757.17728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-49.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Alcaraz 52c10,738$5,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,581.21771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+29.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed Sinner 59c10,500$6,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,31213253.8%71 W · 61 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed Sinner 49c10,102$4,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,113.313933.3%13 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Sinner 50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,00052844.7%236 W · 292 L+30.8wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Alcaraz 23c9,988$2,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,301.571,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf747…f687backed Alcaraz 50c9,859$4,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,929.423253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6fe…b77fbacked Alcaraz 9c9,329$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.983542.9%15 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd8…2ee5backed Alcaraz 50c9,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Sinner 80c8,915$7,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,815.459130.8%28 W · 63 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2873…ad0abacked Alcaraz 52c8,612$4,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,478.231457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed Sinner 49c8,540$4,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,355.4212231.1%38 W · 84 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75a1…693fbacked Sinner 46c8,068$3,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,356.561844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Sinner 50c7,822$3,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,937.062657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.15per pick43cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Sinner 48c7,695$3,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,021.239137.4%34 W · 57 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9c8…44fbbacked Alcaraz 24c6,503$1,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,546.019826.5%26 W · 72 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-33%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Sinner 48c6,345$3,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,317.6722344.8%100 W · 123 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2487…f360backed Alcaraz 66c6,000$3,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,960757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Alcaraz 53c5,773$3,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,073.241464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick59cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe807…8922backed Sinner 56c5,458$3,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,421.23333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Alcaraz 11c5,222$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.191735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Alcaraz 51c5,000$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5503458.8%20 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe411…04c5backed Sinner 51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4506136.1%22 W · 39 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6441…4e5bbacked Alcaraz 51c5,000$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,55010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Alcaraz 52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,599.992725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-47.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Sinner 50c4,979$2,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,489.45224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-90.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4d…c0cfbacked Alcaraz 50c4,635$2,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,334.341650%8 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-25.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Alcaraz 38c4,508$1,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,725.3332141.1%132 W · 189 L-1.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa71f…b09bbacked Alcaraz 49c4,491$2,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,200.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Alcaraz 40c4,355$1,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,738.211230.4%34 W · 78 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Alcaraz 50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Alcaraz 51c4,000$2,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,045.9952750.3%265 W · 262 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Sinner 50c3,808$1,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,903.832360.9%14 W · 9 L+3.7wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+48.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6187…1746backed Alcaraz 50c3,800$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,900450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6650…d38ebacked Sinner 51c3,518$1,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,724.051822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-35.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a14…e79fbacked Sinner 51c3,422$1,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,676.74862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+64.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x366c…6578backed Sinner 53c3,414$1,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,604.593265.6%21 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+36.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked Sinner 50c3,280$1,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,640.2226039.2%102 W · 158 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60f7…050bbacked Alcaraz 47c3,272$1,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,525.32580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+60.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf901…2264backed Alcaraz 15c3,147$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.09850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Alcaraz 49c3,102$1,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,514.586127.9%17 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked Sinner 54c3,044$1,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,415.0312737%47 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe31a…adffbacked Alcaraz 12c3,027$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35025244.4%112 W · 140 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Alcaraz 50c3,015$1,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,509.05742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f41…a496backed Alcaraz 53c3,000$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5904940.8%20 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb4d…de5abacked Alcaraz 50c2,862$1,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,431666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Sinner 49c2,834$1,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,458.2995140.1%381 W · 570 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Sinner 58c2,714$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.036100%6 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+66.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c10…35dcbacked Sinner 49c2,526$1,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,288.032774.1%20 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2588…1cfdbacked Alcaraz 52c2,500$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3001145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed Sinner 72c2,411$1,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.2260053.8%323 W · 277 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3bf…d36abacked Alcaraz 51c2,370$1,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,210.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d07…0351backed Alcaraz 24c2,323$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.8113844.2%61 W · 77 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde7c…c933backed Alcaraz 29c2,313$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.76933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-51.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4662…b73abacked Alcaraz 33c2,182$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.01333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Alcaraz 54c2,169$1,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,173.97037.1%26 W · 44 L-6.5wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-44%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3877…dcf0backed Alcaraz 5c2,100$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Sinner 49c2,041$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.827147.9%34 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd483…756dbacked Alcaraz 46c2,005$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9303243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb52c…450cbacked Sinner 50c2,001$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.535052%26 W · 24 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3013…e5b2backed Alcaraz 9c2,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18040144.4%178 W · 223 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3f5…32aebacked Sinner 50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f40…eb64backed Sinner 50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+43.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cec…09e3backed Alcaraz 50c1,979$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cee…b72abacked Sinner 50c1,931$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965.51040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9262…4978backed Sinner 52c1,923$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.081258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2360…1c1cbacked Sinner 52c1,923$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.088831.8%28 W · 60 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Sinner 60c1,877$1,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.016,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e3d…bf10backed Alcaraz 32c1,837$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5881926.3%5 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-51.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2ef5…39edbacked Sinner 50c1,734$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86725722.2%57 W · 200 L-12.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Sinner 49c1,718$842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$876.1462742.4%266 W · 361 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a90…8218backed Alcaraz 48c1,603$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.252445.8%11 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Alcaraz 54c1,520$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.952634.6%9 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed Sinner 48c1,515$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794.93366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+57.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Alcaraz 45c1,500$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6771,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked Alcaraz 51c1,500$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76522737.4%85 W · 142 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e19…95dabacked Alcaraz 48c1,500$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-38.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Alcaraz 51c1,471$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75051243%220 W · 292 L+14.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a33…2534backed Sinner 50c1,400$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed Sinner 52c1,360$707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.6211060.9%67 W · 43 L+12.0wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+17.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x45a1…d31fbacked Alcaraz 10c1,319$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1321526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-45.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b5a…7618backed Alcaraz 41c1,310$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.425330%76 W · 177 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d5c…7d29backed Alcaraz 49c1,230$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.78540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ad…806fbacked Alcaraz 6c1,220$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7211…3f06backed Sinner 52c1,200$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5761100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89c6…7961backed Sinner 71c1,200$852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3481526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.