UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Bonfim

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fddf094b1915e08429e398292291c7f9ede9320c09ca8cb8256c9dbf9a3f177

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Bonfimof Thompson, Bonfim
Resolved: Jul 13, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $251,689
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $283,920

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $251,689 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5edb…6ff1backed Thompson	21c	127,470$26,873 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26,872.63	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	+38.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fdc…3ad2backed Bonfim	79c	61,570$48,640 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,929.62	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf22e…f52cbacked Thompson	20c	34,247$6,912 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,912.42	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+2.2wins	+0.15per pick	42cpaid	+69.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bonfim	79c	20,000$15,720 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,280	371	52.8%196 W · 175 L	+6.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Bonfim	79c	10,823$8,550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,272.85	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c0…722ebacked Bonfim	80c	10,000$8,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,000	75	45.3%34 W · 41 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Bonfim	66c	8,033$5,333 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,700.27	181	45.3%82 W · 99 L	+6.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1b0…6eaebacked Bonfim	79c	7,269$5,742 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,526.39	34	58.8%20 W · 14 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbbb…4433backed Bonfim	79c	6,300$5,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,299.97	9	88.9%8 W · 1 L	+1.3wins	+0.14per pick	75cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Bonfim	80c	6,000$4,770 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,230	60	50%30 W · 30 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f7d…cd1cbacked Bonfim	79c	5,000$3,950 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,050	47	42.6%20 W · 27 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Bonfim	74c	4,781$3,543 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,238.13	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4e7…c7c7backed Bonfim	78c	3,771$2,959 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$811.69	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-2.8wins	-0.17per pick	52cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbdd8…2ee5backed Thompson	29c	3,547$1,035 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,035.24	104	47.1%49 W · 55 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Thompson	11c	3,301$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$354.99	145	30.3%44 W · 101 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe89e…bb74backed Thompson	21c	3,192$667 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$666.5	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-4.3wins	-0.29per pick	42cpaid	-67.6%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Thompson	20c	3,050$621 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$620.5	358	26%93 W · 265 L	-7.5wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Bonfim	80c	2,914$2,317 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$597.38	243	56.8%138 W · 105 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3d…351dbacked Bonfim	74c	2,726$2,008 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$717.94	120	55.8%67 W · 53 L	-4.0wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Bonfim	79c	2,600$2,054 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$546	88	26.1%23 W · 65 L	-4.5wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Bonfim	79c	2,481$1,971 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$509.94	171	58.5%100 W · 71 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bonfim	79c	2,454$1,946 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$507.74	184	53.8%99 W · 85 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bonfim	78c	2,154$1,683 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$471.64	332	53.3%177 W · 155 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Thompson	20c	2,000$395 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$394.99	221	44.3%98 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Bonfim	80c	1,600$1,280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$320	202	49%99 W · 103 L	+6.0wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked Thompson	22c	1,439$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.58	122	62.3%76 W · 46 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	60cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Thompson	3c	1,400$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	101	2%2 W · 99 L	-4.1wins	-0.04per pick	6cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6203…d744backed Bonfim	73c	1,349$991 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$358.34	25	36%9 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Thompson	21c	1,315$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.19	65	52.3%34 W · 31 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Bonfim	80c	1,250$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250.2	356	64.6%230 W · 126 L	+9.3wins	+0.03per pick	62cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Thompson	21c	1,250$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	83	48.2%40 W · 43 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2105…c514backed Thompson	4c	1,204$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.18	56	32.1%18 W · 38 L	+4.6wins	+0.08per pick	24cpaid	+7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b9c…900fbacked Thompson	22c	1,111$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.42	78	30.8%24 W · 54 L	-9.1wins	-0.12per pick	42cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1d7f…a878backed Thompson	21c	1,000$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	100	41%41 W · 59 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6966…7a8dbacked Bonfim	79c	1,000$790 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$210	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.19per pick	56cpaid	+70.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Thompson	21c	999.99$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	252	51.2%129 W · 123 L	+9.1wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Thompson	22c	909.09$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	186	44.1%82 W · 104 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x197f…dc8dbacked Thompson	17c	901.47$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.05	29	24.1%7 W · 22 L	-4.9wins	-0.17per pick	41cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0ba4…c08bbacked Thompson	20c	860$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d64…5c93backed Bonfim	72c	829.06$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$229.06	14	78.6%11 W · 3 L	+4.8wins	+0.34per pick	44cpaid	+97%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Thompson	22c	726$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.08	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x60ff…5ec3backed Thompson	21c	630$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	100	40%40 W · 60 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x60f7…050bbacked Bonfim	80c	595$476 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.05	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-2.1wins	-0.35per pick	68cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc31a…174ebacked Thompson	21c	571.43$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	97	44.3%43 W · 54 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Thompson	27c	542.4$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.56	85	44.7%38 W · 47 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbc…a89cbacked Thompson	19c	500$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebc3…2626backed Thompson	22c	500$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	82	56.1%46 W · 36 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Bonfim	78c	499.98$390 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110	121	59.5%72 W · 49 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e70…19e8backed Thompson	22c	496.77$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.29	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Bonfim	80c	473.3$379 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.66	248	62.5%155 W · 93 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	61cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43e4…fd34backed Thompson	24c	425.02$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Bonfim	79c	417.72$330 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.72	318	55%175 W · 143 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Thompson	21c	399.98$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	487	49.1%239 W · 248 L	-8.3wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Thompson	21c	391.01$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.96	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a01…6397backed Thompson	33c	368.36$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.36	62	54.8%34 W · 28 L	-5.3wins	-0.09per pick	63cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Thompson	19c	366.9$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.95	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe016…424bbacked Thompson	23c	347.83$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	89	32.6%29 W · 60 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4309…d11ebacked Bonfim	79c	316.46$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.46	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	68cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x804a…6c38backed Thompson	40c	300$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Thompson	21c	300$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	287	43.9%126 W · 161 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb90…1917backed Bonfim	80c	297.75$238 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.55	115	40.9%47 W · 68 L	-10.2wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Thompson	15c	291.13$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.37	235	37%87 W · 148 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x85f1…34ecbacked Thompson	20c	250$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	28	53.6%15 W · 13 L	+4.5wins	+0.16per pick	37cpaid	+70.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0679…bebbbacked Bonfim	80c	231.29$185 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.29	72	58.3%42 W · 30 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea81…30b5backed Thompson	22c	222.73$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	283	33.2%94 W · 189 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x87d3…b82cbacked Thompson	20c	200.31$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Bonfim	65c	200$131 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.07	60	35%21 W · 39 L	-6.3wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Thompson	21c	200$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	130	41.5%54 W · 76 L	-9.1wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9cf8…7f09backed Thompson	22c	200$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	140	52.1%73 W · 67 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc90…a076backed Bonfim	80c	197.68$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.54	48	58.3%28 W · 20 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Thompson	21c	197.5$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.2	564	50.5%285 W · 279 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe063…8a04backed Thompson	22c	193.77$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.25	60	36.7%22 W · 38 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Thompson	20c	151.87$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.93	339	48.1%163 W · 176 L	-16.2wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Bonfim	79c	150$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.5	325	45.2%147 W · 178 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bfc…edb9backed Thompson	35c	150$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.5	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-2.7wins	-0.14per pick	49cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Thompson	17c	150$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	280	43.2%121 W · 159 L	+10.6wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Thompson	23c	149.87$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	246	49.6%122 W · 124 L	+14.2wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a56…695bbacked Thompson	22c	140.89$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.42	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	+1.6wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4133…e834backed Thompson	22c	138.3$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.65	81	43.2%35 W · 46 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1530…562dbacked Thompson	22c	136.36$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+2.1wins	+0.16per pick	38cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x817a…544abacked Bonfim	79c	127$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.67	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.26per pick	76cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc38…e7c2backed Thompson	21c	119.05$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	126	39.7%50 W · 76 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2889…fc69backed Bonfim	79c	117.72$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.72	75	41.3%31 W · 44 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78f2…51a1backed Thompson	22c	116.3$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.25	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b9d…2461backed Bonfim	80c	112.5$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	25	56%14 W · 11 L	-1.8wins	-0.07per pick	63cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bac…ad22backed Bonfim	78c	102.56$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.56	28	53.6%15 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Bonfim	79c	102.39$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.5	522	52.9%276 W · 246 L	+15.0wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1971…c2c4backed Thompson	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5879…bb5dbacked Thompson	22c	100$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	24	50%12 W · 12 L	+2.9wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+42.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Thompson	21c	100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	148	27%40 W · 108 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Thompson	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	227	53.3%121 W · 106 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x211a…9613backed Thompson	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	89	39.3%35 W · 54 L	-6.8wins	-0.08per pick	47cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Thompson	21c	100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	181	41.4%75 W · 106 L	+10.4wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x866d…4d7dbacked Thompson	22c	99.47$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.81	32	28.1%9 W · 23 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13e9…7cd4backed Thompson	22c	90.91$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.22per pick	42cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe239…14eabacked Thompson	29c	86.61$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.79	41	51.2%21 W · 20 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee9e…e1cdbacked Thompson	20c	86.23$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.23	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	+2.9wins	+0.17per pick	48cpaid	+43.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x934f…5bd8backed Bonfim	60c	83.33$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.33	101	48.5%49 W · 52 L	+3.7wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+20%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed Bonfim	60c	83.33$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.33	158	39.2%62 W · 96 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ed0…92debacked Thompson	25c	81.2$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	122	45.1%55 W · 67 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Bonfimthis page
UFC Fight Night: Griffin vs. CurtisCurtis won
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. GarciaGarcia won
UFC Fight Night: Kline vs. MartinezKline won
UFC Fight Night: Landwehr vs. CharrièreCharrière won
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. TeixeiraLewis won
UFC Fight Night: Matthews vs. NjokuaniMatthews won
UFC Fight Night: Murphy vs. MouraMoura won
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. WalkerWalker won
UFC Fight Night: Petrino vs. LanePetrino won
UFC Fight Night: Ramirez vs. DavisDavis won
UFC Fight Night: Tafa vs. TokkosTokkos won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Bonfim

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event