UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Murphy vs. Moura
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cf752a544887d04cd3a38e9dad228d24a2601d80790625816bc76f3f49de231
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mouraof Murphy, Moura
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Murphy | 16c | 50,000$8,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,000 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Murphy | 18c | 4,000$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Murphy | 8c | 2,194$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.17 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Murphy | 6c | 1,766$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.97 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Murphy | 18c | 1,333$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Murphy | 25c | 1,300$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.22 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Moura | 80c | 1,211$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.2 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9c…900fbacked Murphy | 20c | 1,111$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.2 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Murphy | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a878backed Murphy | 18c | 800$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Murphy | 13c | 581.9$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.14 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1530…562dbacked Murphy | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Murphy | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Murphy | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Murphy | 10c | 355.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e4…fd34backed Murphy | 17c | 349.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Moura | 71c | 337.69$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc607…4e9abacked Murphy | 9c | 288.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Moura | 78c | 256$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.32 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Murphy | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Moura | 76c | 240.2$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9083…d27bbacked Murphy | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 151 | 39.7%60 W · 91 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaade…64eabacked Murphy | 20c | 176.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbc…a89cbacked Murphy | 14c | 161$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Murphy | 16c | 149.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Moura | 78c | 110.55$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Murphy | 21c | 107$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Murphy | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Murphy | 16c | 99.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Murphy | 18c | 98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Moura | 77c | 88$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Moura | 76c | 80.45$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Moura | 76c | 80.28$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Moura | 76c | 80.28$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 158 | 39.2%62 W · 96 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…d744backed Murphy | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Murphy | 21c | 48.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 136 | 47.8%65 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Murphy vs. Mourathis page
- UFC Fight Night: Griffin vs. CurtisCurtis won
- UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. GarciaGarcia won
- UFC Fight Night: Kline vs. MartinezKline won
- UFC Fight Night: Landwehr vs. CharrièreCharrière won
- UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. TeixeiraLewis won
- UFC Fight Night: Matthews vs. NjokuaniMatthews won
- UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. WalkerWalker won
- UFC Fight Night: Petrino vs. LanePetrino won
- UFC Fight Night: Ramirez vs. DavisDavis won
- UFC Fight Night: Tafa vs. TokkosTokkos won
- UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. BonfimBonfim won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.