UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Landwehr vs. Charrière

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7909282791790aea68e016ebd0626751e966e72223ac81c51ae51fef2a9e905b

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Charrièreof Landwehr, Charrière
Resolved: Jul 13, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $56,449
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $60,968

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,449 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xce77…35d5backed Landwehr	30c	8,000$2,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,400	60	51.7%31 W · 29 L	+4.3wins	+0.07per pick	44cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Charrière	70c	7,908$5,536 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,372.4	68	41.2%28 W · 40 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06d0…254fbacked Charrière	71c	7,583$5,367 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,216.03	41	61%25 W · 16 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	58cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Landwehr	29c	6,131$1,778 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,778	160	49.4%79 W · 81 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Charrière	69c	4,000$2,760 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,239.98	222	59.5%132 W · 90 L	+15.1wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd4e7…c7c7backed Charrière	69c	3,597$2,482 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,114.98	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-2.8wins	-0.17per pick	52cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Landwehr	29c	2,424$693 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$693.14	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Landwehr	30c	2,351$706 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$706.27	358	26%93 W · 265 L	-7.5wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Landwehr	30c	2,344$703 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$703.28	202	49%99 W · 103 L	+6.0wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1b0…6eaebacked Charrière	70c	2,241$1,569 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$672.38	34	58.8%20 W · 14 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Landwehr	30c	2,098$623 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$623.15	184	53.8%99 W · 85 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Landwehr	31c	2,000$620 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$620	137	35.8%49 W · 88 L	-5.3wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Landwehr	20c	1,998$405 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$405.45	149	29.5%44 W · 105 L	-15.2wins	-0.10per pick	40cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Charrière	59c	1,901$1,120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$780.66	104	43.3%45 W · 59 L	-5.5wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-21%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbdd8…2ee5backed Charrière	64c	1,761$1,131 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$630.49	104	47.1%49 W · 55 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Landwehr	31c	1,680$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$519.8	122	35.2%43 W · 79 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Landwehr	8c	1,435$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	101	2%2 W · 99 L	-4.1wins	-0.04per pick	6cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Landwehr	2c	1,310$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.78	145	30.3%44 W · 101 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad25…7678backed Landwehr	31c	1,250$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387.5	118	44.1%52 W · 66 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Charrière	70c	1,000$700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300	399	59.6%238 W · 161 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xebc3…2626backed Charrière	70c	1,000$700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300	82	56.1%46 W · 36 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Landwehr	30c	862.11$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.63	88	26.1%23 W · 65 L	-4.5wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x87d3…b82cbacked Landwehr	31c	809.38$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.91	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f7d…cd1cbacked Charrière	69c	721.46$498 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$223.65	47	42.6%20 W · 27 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f76…3e05backed Charrière	76c	690$524 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$165.6	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Landwehr	32c	664.06$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.25	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Charrière	70c	600$422 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$178	248	62.5%155 W · 93 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	61cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc607…4e9abacked Landwehr	34c	588.24$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.7wins	+0.17per pick	43cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf744…7392backed Landwehr	36c	555.14$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43e4…fd34backed Landwehr	31c	546.7$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.61	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e0e…fdb4backed Landwehr	76c	525.97$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.5wins	-0.73per pick	73cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Landwehr	28c	499.99$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	221	44.3%98 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ee4…80f2backed Landwehr	43c	469.86$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	65	55.4%36 W · 29 L	-3.8wins	-0.06per pick	61cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x60ff…5ec3backed Landwehr	33c	456.22$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	100	40%40 W · 60 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb033…bedbbacked Charrière	70c	400$280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	63cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Landwehr	70c	399.61$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.13	67	46.3%31 W · 36 L	-6.4wins	-0.10per pick	56cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Landwehr	34c	355.1$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	515	33.6%173 W · 342 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Charrière	69c	345.92$239 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.23	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Landwehr	31c	322.58$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	186	44.1%82 W · 104 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Landwehr	28c	312.45$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.49	83	48.2%40 W · 43 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Landwehr	32c	308.58$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	355	39.4%140 W · 215 L	-19.1wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Landwehr	29c	300$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.25	339	48.1%163 W · 176 L	-16.2wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Charrière	72c	300$216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84	121	59.5%72 W · 49 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd14c…17bebacked Charrière	71c	300$213 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.4	131	60.3%79 W · 52 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Charrière	79c	290.9$231 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.98	540	56.7%306 W · 234 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Charrière	66c	281.95$186 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.86	78	53.8%42 W · 36 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Charrière	67c	276.58$187 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.93	238	50.4%120 W · 118 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf6c0…722ebacked Landwehr	31c	236.08$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.18	75	45.3%34 W · 41 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Charrière	70c	229.84$161 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.95	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Landwehr	30c	200$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	141	44.7%63 W · 78 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc3d…351dbacked Landwehr	66c	200$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132	120	55.8%67 W · 53 L	-4.0wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6203…d744backed Charrière	47c	200$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106	25	36%9 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Charrière	69c	180$124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.8	564	50.5%285 W · 279 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2105…c514backed Landwehr	28c	175$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	56	32.1%18 W · 38 L	+4.6wins	+0.08per pick	24cpaid	+7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xed95…b1e6backed Landwehr	48c	165.18$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.03	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12f1…3cd3backed Charrière	29c	152.78$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.31	29	62.1%18 W · 11 L	+6.5wins	+0.23per pick	40cpaid	+62.3%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2a01…6397backed Charrière	73c	142.85$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.57	62	54.8%34 W · 28 L	-5.3wins	-0.09per pick	63cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Charrière	71c	140.85$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.85	299	48.8%146 W · 153 L	-9.8wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Landwehr	29c	140.85$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.85	352	53.1%187 W · 165 L	+27.7wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1530…562dbacked Charrière	72c	139.58$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.58	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+2.1wins	+0.16per pick	38cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc90…a076backed Landwehr	38c	110$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	48	58.3%28 W · 20 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97be…416dbacked Charrière	70c	107.29$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.19	29	55.2%16 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Charrière	71c	100$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29	325	45.2%147 W · 178 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Charrière	70c	100$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	318	55%175 W · 143 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x211a…9613backed Landwehr	30c	100$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	89	39.3%35 W · 54 L	-6.8wins	-0.08per pick	47cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x88c4…fbf0backed Landwehr	30c	98.89$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.14	66	33.3%22 W · 44 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ec83backed Landwehr	31c	82.26$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.7	223	42.2%94 W · 129 L	-9.1wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e2b…97b2backed Charrière	70c	72.9$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.87	77	45.5%35 W · 42 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ad1…8c20backed Landwehr	29c	70$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.3	78	56.4%44 W · 34 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x197f…dc8dbacked Landwehr	42c	65.34$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.51	29	24.1%7 W · 22 L	-4.9wins	-0.17per pick	41cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Landwehr	31c	64.52$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	228	53.1%121 W · 107 L	-7.5wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e17…e4d4backed Charrière	71c	53.79$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.6	79	60.8%48 W · 31 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	64cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaa1…e6fdbacked Landwehr	31c	48.39$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	56	48.2%27 W · 29 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x749e…8626backed Charrière	70c	41.8$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.54	78	59%46 W · 32 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16ba…818ebacked Charrière	71c	38.59$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.3	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cbb…a2e1backed Charrière	70c	21.43$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.43	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	62cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf9d…c956backed Charrière	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	229	53.3%122 W · 107 L	+8.6wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1726…5f1bbacked Charrière	70c	16.34$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.9	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.5wins	+0.30per pick	50cpaid	+52%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xafc2…5eaabacked Charrière	70c	15$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.5	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Landwehr	71c	15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	23	82.6%19 W · 4 L	+5.6wins	+0.24per pick	58cpaid	+65.6%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

UFC Fight Night: Landwehr vs. Charrièrethis page
UFC Fight Night: Griffin vs. CurtisCurtis won
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. GarciaGarcia won
UFC Fight Night: Kline vs. MartinezKline won
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. TeixeiraLewis won
UFC Fight Night: Matthews vs. NjokuaniMatthews won
UFC Fight Night: Murphy vs. MouraMoura won
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. WalkerWalker won
UFC Fight Night: Petrino vs. LanePetrino won
UFC Fight Night: Ramirez vs. DavisDavis won
UFC Fight Night: Tafa vs. TokkosTokkos won
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. BonfimBonfim won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

UFC Fight Night: Landwehr vs. Charrière

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event