UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Petrino vs. Lane
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9900047926e40f4f2d81a41a8e3e11245806bae181b12b507d363b5d784f6181
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Petrinoof Petrino, Lane
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Lane | 16c | 27,135$4,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,341.59 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Lane | 17c | 4,005$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.82 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Lane | 14c | 3,420$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.81 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Lane | 17c | 1,746$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.82 | 130 | 39.2%51 W · 79 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Lane | 17c | 1,645$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.71 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Lane | 21c | 1,456$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.06 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Lane | 16c | 1,430$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.77 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Lane | 16c | 1,068$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.58 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Lane | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Lane | 19c | 532.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Lane | 16c | 514.45$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ef…30f5backed Lane | 21c | 477.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Lane | 18c | 466.67$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Lane | 16c | 422.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Lane | 16c | 404.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87d3…b82cbacked Lane | 18c | 393$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.74 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Lane | 5c | 390$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e4…fd34backed Lane | 17c | 349.73$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Lane | 17c | 308$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Lane | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Petrino | 77c | 249.7$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.43 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Petrino | 76c | 246$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Lane | 17c | 204.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Lane | 15c | 199.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Petrino | 78c | 150$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Lane | 17c | 147.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1530…562dbacked Lane | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60ff…5ec3backed Lane | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97be…416dbacked Lane | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Petrino | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc90…a076backed Petrino | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…d744backed Lane | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Lane | 15c | 99.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbffc…1f45backed Petrino | 80c | 19.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Petrino vs. Lanethis page
- UFC Fight Night: Griffin vs. CurtisCurtis won
- UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. GarciaGarcia won
- UFC Fight Night: Kline vs. MartinezKline won
- UFC Fight Night: Landwehr vs. CharrièreCharrière won
- UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. TeixeiraLewis won
- UFC Fight Night: Matthews vs. NjokuaniMatthews won
- UFC Fight Night: Murphy vs. MouraMoura won
- UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. WalkerWalker won
- UFC Fight Night: Ramirez vs. DavisDavis won
- UFC Fight Night: Tafa vs. TokkosTokkos won
- UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. BonfimBonfim won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.