UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Griffin vs. Curtis

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95b0804cb7791fe749eae261a418b99023e6a3bf6ff3bd0f67edcde3266749aa

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Curtis of Griffin, Curtis
Resolved: Jul 12, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $59,765
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $69,258

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,765 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xafba…e61bbacked Griffin	26c	10,823$2,844 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,843.99	352	53.1%187 W · 165 L	+27.7wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xce77…35d5backed Griffin	26c	9,443$2,454 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,454.26	60	51.7%31 W · 29 L	+4.3wins	+0.07per pick	44cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f7d…cd1cbacked Griffin	27c	7,727$2,086 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,086.35	47	42.6%20 W · 27 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Curtis	64c	4,564$2,913 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,651.88	104	43.3%45 W · 59 L	-5.5wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-21%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x37d2…45eebacked Curtis	73c	3,550$2,591 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$958.47	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	60cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebc3…2626backed Curtis	72c	3,096$2,235 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$860.36	82	56.1%46 W · 36 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd2…87b1backed Curtis	73c	2,608$1,904 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$704.18	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	74cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Griffin	28c	2,075$591 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$590.84	358	26%93 W · 265 L	-7.5wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1b0…6eaebacked Curtis	68c	2,005$1,356 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$648.71	34	58.8%20 W · 14 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Curtis	74c	1,926$1,425 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500.68	125	41.6%52 W · 73 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Curtis	74c	1,500$1,110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$390	399	59.6%238 W · 161 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Curtis	74c	1,186$877 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$308.28	68	41.2%28 W · 40 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ee4…80f2backed Curtis	73c	1,098$800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$298.1	65	55.4%36 W · 29 L	-3.8wins	-0.06per pick	61cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x327c…9a81backed Griffin	26c	1,000$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3022…145abacked Curtis	73c	992.72$724 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$268.64	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.27per pick	73cpaid	+37.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Griffin	25c	978.16$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.54	83	48.2%40 W · 43 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f76…3e05backed Curtis	73c	957.73$701 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$256.45	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Griffin	41c	929$379 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$378.77	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x60f7…050bbacked Curtis	74c	826.58$609 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$217.91	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-2.1wins	-0.35per pick	68cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc607…4e9abacked Curtis	74c	675.68$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$175.68	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.7wins	+0.17per pick	43cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Curtis	74c	675.68$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$175.68	356	64.6%230 W · 126 L	+9.3wins	+0.03per pick	62cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Curtis	72c	516.67$372 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144.67	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Griffin	21c	496.48$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.79	515	33.6%173 W · 342 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x239a…a0c6backed Griffin	23c	434.61$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	45	40%18 W · 27 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87d3…b82cbacked Griffin	34c	408.27$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b9c…900fbacked Curtis	73c	403$294 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.81	78	30.8%24 W · 54 L	-9.1wins	-0.12per pick	42cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb18b…4e0ebacked Curtis	75c	400.13$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.13	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-2.8wins	-0.22per pick	60cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Curtis	75c	400$298 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102	248	62.5%155 W · 93 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	61cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc7…e5edbacked Curtis	74c	400$296 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51a3…e1e2backed Curtis	74c	400$296 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Griffin	19c	367.93$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.82	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Curtis	73c	365.22$267 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98	539	56.6%305 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f91…9388backed Curtis	74c	349.34$259 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.83	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-2.6wins	-0.28per pick	62cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4309…d11ebacked Curtis	74c	339.19$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.19	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	68cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Griffin	17c	334.7$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.9	88	26.1%23 W · 65 L	-4.5wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ba4…c08bbacked Griffin	27c	300$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Curtis	72c	276.86$199 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.52	332	53.3%177 W · 155 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Curtis	73c	250$183 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.5	121	59.5%72 W · 49 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked Griffin	35c	236.91$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.13	41	61%25 W · 16 L	+5.3wins	+0.13per pick	48cpaid	+37.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Curtis	72c	215$155 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.2	564	50.5%285 W · 279 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x412a…802cbacked Curtis	72c	206.67$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.58	168	51.8%87 W · 81 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab43…f7b3backed Curtis	74c	202.29$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.29	160	58.8%94 W · 66 L	+7.9wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+12%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Curtis	71c	200$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58	141	44.7%63 W · 78 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad25…7678backed Griffin	29c	200$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	118	44.1%52 W · 66 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd36f…2c7bbacked Curtis	74c	200$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd14c…17bebacked Curtis	71c	200$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58	131	60.3%79 W · 52 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe063…8a04backed Griffin	14c	198.9$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.75	60	36.7%22 W · 38 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97be…416dbacked Curtis	74c	194.05$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.77	29	55.2%16 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Curtis	72c	172.86$124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.4	51	47.1%24 W · 27 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Curtis	73c	171.84$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.4	318	55%175 W · 143 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d64…5c93backed Griffin	26c	170$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.5	14	78.6%11 W · 3 L	+4.8wins	+0.34per pick	44cpaid	+97%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0x60ff…5ec3backed Griffin	32c	157.8$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.09	100	40%40 W · 60 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed95…b1e6backed Curtis	74c	157.36$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.36	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Curtis	70c	150$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.5	325	45.2%147 W · 178 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27e2…2c85backed Curtis	72c	150$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.28per pick	72cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf744…7392backed Griffin	28c	142.86$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Griffin	28c	141.63$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	246	49.6%122 W · 124 L	+14.2wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf635…e876backed Curtis	74c	135.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.18	66	45.5%30 W · 36 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2516…f107backed Curtis	74c	135.14$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.14	19	78.9%15 W · 4 L	+2.6wins	+0.13per pick	66cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Curtis	74c	135.14$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.14	355	39.4%140 W · 215 L	-19.1wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e17…e4d4backed Curtis	73c	119.75$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.33	79	60.8%48 W · 31 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	64cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6643…0109backed Griffin	28c	100$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	121	47.1%57 W · 64 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Griffin	27c	90$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.3	339	48.1%163 W · 176 L	-16.2wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8495…df87backed Curtis	77c	70.4$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.19	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.23per pick	77cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1530…562dbacked Griffin	33c	60.61$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+2.1wins	+0.16per pick	38cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x225b…2f84backed Griffin	30c	60$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Curtis	69c	50$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.5	65	52.3%34 W · 31 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ec83backed Curtis	65c	50$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.5	223	42.2%94 W · 129 L	-9.1wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc90…a076backed Griffin	41c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.43	48	58.3%28 W · 20 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88c4…fbf0backed Curtis	70c	47.81$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.2	66	33.3%22 W · 44 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x00bd…95f9backed Griffin	24c	46.72$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	75	44%33 W · 42 L	-10.7wins	-0.14per pick	58cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Curtis	76c	45.75$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.95	85	44.7%38 W · 47 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6579…23ddbacked Curtis	80c	45$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	+2.4wins	+0.12per pick	50cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3916…53c7backed Griffin	27c	44.44$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	50	38%19 W · 31 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22c7…ca3ebacked Griffin	27c	44$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	57	36.8%21 W · 36 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ba…818ebacked Curtis	74c	40.54$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.54	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x749e…8626backed Curtis	70c	30.14$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.04	78	59%46 W · 32 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Curtis	73c	27.4$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.4	63	60.3%38 W · 25 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	66cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc485…948dbacked Curtis	74c	27.03$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.03	30	53.3%16 W · 14 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	59cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x83ce…0d06backed Curtis	66c	25$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.5	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224b…f6b8backed Curtis	55c	23$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.25	44	45.5%20 W · 24 L	-3.0wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad89…824ebacked Curtis	70c	22$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.6	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.36per pick	64cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Curtis	74c	15$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.9	23	82.6%19 W · 4 L	+5.6wins	+0.24per pick	58cpaid	+65.6%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

UFC Fight Night: Griffin vs. Curtisthis page
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. GarciaGarcia won
UFC Fight Night: Kline vs. MartinezKline won
UFC Fight Night: Landwehr vs. CharrièreCharrière won
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. TeixeiraLewis won
UFC Fight Night: Matthews vs. NjokuaniMatthews won
UFC Fight Night: Murphy vs. MouraMoura won
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. WalkerWalker won
UFC Fight Night: Petrino vs. LanePetrino won
UFC Fight Night: Ramirez vs. DavisDavis won
UFC Fight Night: Tafa vs. TokkosTokkos won
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. BonfimBonfim won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

UFC Fight Night: Griffin vs. Curtis

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event