TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Wimbledon: Sabalenka vs. Anisimova (W)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Anisimovaof Sabalenka, Anisimova
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,292,284
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,477,790

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,292,284 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 339 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa49b…4c40backed Sabalenka72c122,973$88,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88,461.8311230.4%34 W · 78 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Sabalenka1c88,503$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.5625252.4%132 W · 120 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fdc…3ad2backed Sabalenka72c70,613$50,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,703.773641.7%15 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Anisimova37c64,552$24,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,383.411,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Anisimova27c54,569$14,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,835.3516242%68 W · 94 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e11…9bacbacked Anisimova33c52,701$17,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,309.663050%15 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+31%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a14…e79fbacked Anisimova27c42,257$11,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,847.93862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+64.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6ab…5eb9backed Sabalenka78c28,264$22,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,031.24475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Anisimova45c25,436$11,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,989.954040%16 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed Anisimova27c25,000$6,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,25012231.1%38 W · 84 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed Anisimova33c24,632$8,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,415.0657939.7%230 W · 349 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Sabalenka67c22,986$15,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,390.251,10742.8%474 W · 633 L-20.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Sabalenka73c22,017$16,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,006.611127.3%3 W · 8 L-4.5wins-0.41per pick68cpaid-61.2%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x821d…0a01backed Anisimova29c16,288$4,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,645.439935.4%35 W · 64 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Anisimova27c16,000$4,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,68015832.9%52 W · 106 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdc2…8b96backed Anisimova29c15,090$4,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,713.951838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x85e1…0e40backed Sabalenka1c13,079$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.22540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-34.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ef4…412cbacked Anisimova37c12,909$4,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,186.44436.4%16 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e2f…578fbacked Anisimova24c12,568$3,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,514.59850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Sabalenka57c12,157$6,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,937.7428043.2%121 W · 159 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f7…58dbbacked Sabalenka56c11,212$6,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,263.725253.8%28 W · 24 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7346…b79dbacked Anisimova64c11,116$7,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,007.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Anisimova40c10,839$4,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,513.2810845.4%49 W · 59 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92f1…9b81backed Anisimova29c10,751$3,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,634.053336.4%12 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7435…a620backed Anisimova29c10,348$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,348.282263.6%14 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3503…b8babacked Anisimova27c10,000$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,299.982360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ef0…657ebacked Sabalenka43c9,514$4,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,134.421127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a6f…6b82backed Sabalenka71c9,476$6,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,729.524744.7%21 W · 26 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-19.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e4…b46fbacked Sabalenka1c9,153$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Anisimova36c8,860$3,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,697.66530.8%20 W · 45 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-40.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Sabalenka71c8,540$6,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,063.562317.4%4 W · 19 L-3.9wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-63.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Anisimova62c8,391$5,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,213.914345.5%65 W · 78 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Sabalenka61c7,864$4,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,807.891,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Anisimova32c7,130$2,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,828.9922037.7%83 W · 137 L+1.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Anisimova46c6,999$3,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,756.6132141.1%132 W · 189 L-1.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Sabalenka58c6,999$4,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,03743948.5%213 W · 226 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb52c…450cbacked Sabalenka64c6,974$4,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,480.755052%26 W · 24 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Anisimova27c6,720$1,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,905.292657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.15per pick43cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Anisimova73c6,291$4,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,667.492751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+41.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae30…d0a3backed Sabalenka57c5,927$3,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,358.867943%34 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bae…e6c5backed Anisimova39c5,805$2,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,543.9117818%32 W · 146 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-39.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa5f…005fbacked Anisimova69c5,790$4,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,784.253669.4%25 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x515f…a134backed Sabalenka73c5,500$4,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,01530%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa169…cb6fbacked Sabalenka73c5,350$3,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,905.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Sabalenka68c5,079$3,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,461.5422344.8%100 W · 123 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Anisimova28c5,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,599.9964455.3%356 W · 288 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfbd…0259backed Sabalenka73c4,983$3,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,637.3230%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked Anisimova27c4,792$1,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,498.332759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Sabalenka56c4,718$2,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,646.912445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Sabalenka43c4,616$1,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,972.8852744.6%235 W · 292 L+30.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3550…68b6backed Anisimova76c4,539$3,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,089.241533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid+274.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e1b…2177backed Sabalenka73c4,472$3,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,264.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fc3…74c9backed Sabalenka1c4,388$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.04966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Anisimova49c4,272$2,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,159.566535.4%23 W · 42 L-0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Sabalenka73c4,219$3,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,079.8760055.7%334 W · 266 L+2.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbba7…dde5backed Sabalenka73c4,123$3,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,009.43250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf22e…f52cbacked Anisimova33c3,904$1,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,604.965525.5%14 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6dfb…55c8backed Sabalenka73c3,828$2,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,794.42250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a5f…ce01backed Sabalenka73c3,784$2,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,762.191060%6 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d30…b2b3backed Anisimova29c3,448$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,448.081040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0254…34b3backed Sabalenka72c3,374$2,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,429.05475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8406…0176backed Sabalenka72c3,229$2,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,324.8610654.7%58 W · 48 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22b6…3f65backed Anisimova39c3,133$1,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,902.3425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked Sabalenka29c3,032$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.222737.4%85 W · 142 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2873…ad0abacked Anisimova73c3,000$2,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8201457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed Sabalenka62c2,900$1,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,795.1613253.8%71 W · 61 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeeee…ccb7backed Sabalenka73c2,847$2,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,078.351450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1331…3d82backed Sabalenka73c2,808$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,049.92933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.8wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-49.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9045…321abacked Sabalenka2c2,777$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.63922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-61%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x079c…ad49backed Sabalenka65c2,568$1,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,669.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xab07…1e7bbacked Anisimova28c2,496$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,790.591361.5%8 W · 5 L+4.0wins+0.30per pick31cpaid+78.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x6111…c02fbacked Sabalenka1c2,486$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.953946.2%18 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed Sabalenka68c2,336$1,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,595.86250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked Sabalenka43c2,240$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.445822.4%13 W · 45 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-59.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Anisimova38c2,224$834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,389.5535032.3%113 W · 237 L-9.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Anisimova29c2,069$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,468.9728443%122 W · 162 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc398…f446backed Anisimova28c2,025$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,458.0395935.5%340 W · 619 L-40.1wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Anisimova27c2,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4607147.9%34 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Anisimova29c2,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,42073147.9%350 W · 381 L-16.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdeb…1a50backed Sabalenka50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe31a…adffbacked Anisimova28c1,983$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,417.9425244.4%112 W · 140 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcad…3932backed Sabalenka64c1,958$1,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,253.15933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-48%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6650…d38ebacked Sabalenka64c1,893$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,211.631822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-35.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf909…2b17backed Sabalenka72c1,814$1,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,306.081266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4022…f352backed Sabalenka21c1,811$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.2630%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec3f…55c0backed Sabalenka35c1,689$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d9a…4e25backed Sabalenka72c1,592$1,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,146.236254.8%34 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fae…3488backed Sabalenka38c1,561$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.236338.1%24 W · 39 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e3d…bf10backed Anisimova33c1,506$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005.611926.3%5 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-51.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaf68…3fdebacked Sabalenka25c1,500$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce2…5d4ebacked Anisimova73c1,464$1,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.436100%6 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+84.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc27c…50b6backed Anisimova17c1,457$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,207.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+482.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Sabalenka64c1,400$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9021,44448.8%705 W · 739 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3210…5c4ebacked Anisimova46c1,393$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.252133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-44.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfffa…864bbacked Anisimova65c1,363$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.01955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed Anisimova46c1,304$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.3511060.9%67 W · 43 L+12.0wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+17.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x05af…7a22backed Sabalenka41c1,285$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.3330%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaaef…472abacked Sabalenka13c1,239$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.42326.1%6 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-42.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7bb4…acb6backed Sabalenka58c1,230$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.927356.2%41 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e78…52b5backed Anisimova56c1,226$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.639348.4%45 W · 48 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.