TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3550…68b6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
132
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Europa Conference League, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Europa Conference League at 55 out of 100; worst La Liga at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2025, EDT5413%7 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 54 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chelsea win the 2025 UEFA Conference League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$475Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$475.33
Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.69
Will Brighton win on 2025-05-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$588Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$587.58
Will Arsenal win on 2025-05-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$59.47
Will Chelsea win on 2025-05-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$601Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$601.15
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-05-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$71.41
Will Liverpool vs. Arsenal end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$179.82
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Leicester end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.52
Will Newcastle win on 2025-05-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$231.17
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-05-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.6
Will Southampton vs. Manchester City end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$333Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$332.69
Will Chelsea win on 2025-05-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$53.4
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-04-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Liverpool win on 2025-04-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$281Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$280.88
Will Chelsea win on 2025-04-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.72
Will Fulham vs. Chelsea end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2025, EDT+669.2%+$1,033.9
Will Everton win on 2025-04-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.07
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-04-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$400
Will Manchester United vs. Manchester City end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.51
Will Tottenham win on 2025-04-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-04-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$209.28
Will Wolves win on 2025-04-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.6
Will Everton vs. Arsenal end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$79.5
Will Chelsea win on 2025-04-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$608Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$608.41
Will Liverpool win on 2025-04-02?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$58.93
Showing 25 of 54 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2025, EDT2718.5%5 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick12cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will PSG beat Bayern Munich in regulation time?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$851Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$851.33
Will Fluminense beat Al Hilal in regulation time?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$98
Will Mamelodi vs. Fluminense end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$61.54
Will Real Madrid beat Pachuca?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$64
Will Inter Miami beat FC Porto?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.93
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-05-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$280.19
Champions League: Arsenal vs. PSG (To Advance)backed Arsenal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.59
Will Barcelona win on 2025-05-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$720Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+1,011.1%+$7,280
Will Barcelona vs. Inter end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.35
Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$94.18
Will Inter vs. Bayern Munich end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.71
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-04-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.57
Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$156.29
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$519Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$519.32
UEFA Nations League Round of 8: Denmark vs. Portugalbacked Portugal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT+25%+$5
UEFA Nations League Round of 8: Italy vs. Germanybacked Italy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Real Madrid or Atlético de Madrid advance in the UCL Round of 16?backed Atlético Madrid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$114.39
Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$420Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT+614.3%+$2,580
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$240
Will Barcelona win on 2025-03-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST-100%-$128.71
Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$471Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST-100%-$470.84
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-03-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST-100%-$116.94
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST-100%-$74.48
Will Stade Brestois beat RB Salzburg?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT+455.6%+$273.06
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Nov 3, 2025, EST1533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid+274.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
WTA Finals, Serena Williams Group: Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakinabacked Rybakina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+33.3%+$5
Will Aryna Sabalenka win Wimbledon 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$470Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT+47.6%+$223.44
Wimbledon: Alcaraz vs. Fritz backed Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$125
Wimbledon: Sabalenka vs. Anisimova (W) backed Anisimova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$3,449Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$1,089.24
Wimbledon: Cobolli vs. Djokovic backed Cobolli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$91.12
Wimbledon: Fritz vs. Khachanovbacked Khachanov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.35
Wimbledon: Fritz vs. Fokina backed Fokina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$801Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$801.26
Wimbledon: Fritz vs. Perricardbacked Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,697Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+106.2%+$1,802.64
Wimbledon: Fognini vs. Alcaraz backed Fognini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$990Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$990
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 French Open?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT+4,900%+$2,404.97
French Open: Alcaraz vs. Sinner backed Sinner · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$61.54
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 French Open? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.96
French Open: Sabalenka vs. Gauffbacked Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.36
French Open: Sinner vs. Djokovicbacked Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.5
US Open: De Minaur vs. Draperbacked De Minaur · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$393Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2024, EDT-100%-$393.1
All 15 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2025, EDT1127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick14cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tottenham Hotspur win the UEFA Europa League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$536Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$535.88
Will Tottenham win on 2025-05-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$71.38
Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.48
UEFA Europa League: Lyon vs. Man United (To Advance)backed Lyon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$87.88
Will Rangers vs. Athletic Club end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
Will Tottenham vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.64
Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-03-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT+143.9%+$164.2
Will Manchester United win on 2025-03-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$617Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$616.55
Will Lyon win on 2025-03-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$177Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST+69.5%+$123
Will AZ Alkmaar win on 2025-03-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST-100%-$20.87
Will Frankfurt beat Viktoria Plzen?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2024, EDT+669.2%+$522
All 11 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Oct 26, 2025, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-56.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+296.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Cricket Inactivelast resolved Mar 27, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick4cpaid+241.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Cricket — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+211.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$3,229Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+27.1%+$874.78
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,984Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+396.7%+$7,869.86
All 2 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$423Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$227.45
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.