La Liga · resolved market
Will Real Madrid beat Athletic Club?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc74c7cebbbc7155032780a1c0ed8e47d636697a39f246398e053a19779b86aba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf892…7f58backed No | 39c | 5,170$2,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,019.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 61c | 3,793$2,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,472.72 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3550…68b6backed No | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 49c | 2,271$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.51 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…8826backed Yes | 55c | 1,837$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 33c | 1,321$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.6 | 258 | 72.9%188 W · 70 L | +23.2wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 69c | 1,319$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.1 | 202 | 55%111 W · 91 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked No | 31c | 1,240$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Yes | 61c | 902.97$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.16 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 58c | 886$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.2 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -7.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed No | 33c | 308$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.56 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Yes | 63c | 307.02$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.31 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…c4c8backed No | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked No | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…05cabacked Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b37…c06bbacked Yes | 68c | 142.63$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 40c | 123.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 70.6%72 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 73c | 110$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6705…8184backed Yes | 49c | 102.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked No | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf79…945abacked Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038d…d484backed No | 33c | 81.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed No | 53c | 73.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +6.5wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92be…d717backed Yes | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8c20backed Yes | 61c | 55.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe724…1938backed Yes | 69c | 51.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…807cbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a26…7300backed Yes | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc64e…3cdbbacked Yes | 59c | 48.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +46%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1614…64cdbacked Yes | 61c | 43.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a57…88acbacked Yes | 69c | 40.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d5…ac1ebacked Yes | 69c | 37.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf479…0fe3backed Yes | 61c | 35.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…8fe0backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.32per pick | 46cpaid | +69%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 64c | 28.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ba…818ebacked Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x675e…a359backed Yes | 61c | 23.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae20…245abacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0a…5f86backed Yes | 61c | 16.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Madrid beat Athletic Club?this page
- Will Athletic Club beat Real Madrid?No won
- Will Real Madrid vs. Athletic Club end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.