Fifa International · resolved market
Will Finland beat Poland?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f201335f6f57eaa843465522fe56b836ecfb4e219c7ca47f391419001e4b43f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $180,072
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3151…0977backed No | 10c | 28,750$2,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,768.11 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3550…68b6backed No | 8c | 11,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +296.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 42c | 7,123$2,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,961.25 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f9…7dd4backed Yes | 78c | 3,847$3,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ab…5eb9backed Yes | 79c | 3,815$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 70cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 24c | 3,635$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.86 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Yes | 26c | 1,777$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,314.98 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked No | 74c | 1,777$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,314.98 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3503…b8babacked Yes | 28c | 1,610$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,161.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +157.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4022…f352backed Yes | 26c | 1,517$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 72c | 1,499$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.49 | 470 | 32.8%154 W · 316 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed No | 21c | 1,112$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 27c | 1,111$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.11 | 274 | 34.3%94 W · 180 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3885…485fbacked Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bf…9281backed No | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8a…2f4abacked Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +168.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…32b3backed No | 24c | 800.59$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 72c | 799.48$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.49 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 73c | 691.04$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.46 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c9…f79bbacked No | 74c | 630$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed No | 74c | 593.13$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 254 | 55.9%142 W · 112 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed No | 25c | 528.42$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.11 | 319 | 45.1%144 W · 175 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed No | 21c | 471$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 73c | 412.83$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.37 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…aac8backed No | 75c | 400$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c78…b72ebacked Yes | 57c | 283.74$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.77 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 28c | 204.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c9…bb9ebacked No | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd6…48c1backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ac…957dbacked Yes | 56c | 192$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe920…e742backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +174.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 73c | 156.85$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.5 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…e969backed No | 74c | 147.07$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.06 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a97…0fc7backed No | 74c | 140$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…97b3backed No | 43c | 116.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb33…1fe7backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3a…c8efbacked Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12e5…9bf7backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc1…ac1cbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a81…2008backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51c0…0305backed No | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2a…686bbacked No | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…eaa6backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +109.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…aec0backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…9963backed No | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 124 | 17.7%22 W · 102 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a54…953abacked Yes | 27c | 53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 73c | 52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ada…1f1bbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 97 | 64.9%63 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc48…6dcdbacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked No | 72c | 44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ca…e168backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked Yes | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6819…fb70backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed No | 74c | 27.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d62…db73backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x632c…a60bbacked No | 75c | 24.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4624…0a84backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8923…63cebacked No | 75c | 13.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Finland beat Poland?this page
- Will Finland vs. Poland end in a draw?No won
- Will Poland beat Finland?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.