Champions League · resolved market
Will Mamelodi vs. Fluminense end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b08f10e241117d89164db20d3ed5a285317facf8a85d5bd3fc56fe3febfb48b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 41c | 5,700$2,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,361.5 | 219 | 38.4%84 W · 135 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed No | 49c | 3,617$1,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,768.75 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 70c | 3,287$2,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,302.79 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked No | 51c | 3,176$1,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,623.9 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 60c | 2,907$1,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750.81 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed Yes | 30c | 2,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750 | 209 | 48.8%102 W · 107 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ef…b4d9backed Yes | 38c | 2,129$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330.21 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 57c | 2,084$1,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.98 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3550…68b6backed No | 4c | 1,538$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.54 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8af…5700backed No | 72c | 915$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 28c | 657.18$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.19 | 76 | 25%19 W · 57 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…141ebacked Yes | 28c | 485$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +225.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed No | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed No | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…5474backed Yes | 74c | 271.05$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Yes | 71c | 265$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.3 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed No | 40c | 257.65$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.9 | 160 | 36.9%59 W · 101 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 75c | 205.33$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…a286backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 25c | 160.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.45 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Yes | 48c | 144.09$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.45 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb7…2799backed Yes | 28c | 140$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 40cpaid | +176.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…6304backed Yes | 79c | 127.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 63c | 114.29$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…1f3cbacked Yes | 38c | 110.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.71 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac7…3a34backed No | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Yes | 56c | 100.7$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b68…795bbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ff…acedbacked Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +139.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3257backed No | 41c | 73.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed No | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…f5ddbacked Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed No | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | -8.3wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b52…5758backed No | 72c | 55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fc…ca96backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x902d…0066backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30dc…f26ebacked Yes | 27c | 48.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 28cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked No | 60c | 46.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 71c | 46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 240 | 47.1%113 W · 127 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe087…c9fdbacked Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdabf…2becbacked Yes | 64c | 35.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 37c | 32.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe108…eb23backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed No | 60c | 27.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…386dbacked Yes | 61c | 26.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 71c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…16fdbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a56…695bbacked No | 61c | 21.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 64c | 20.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…587bbacked No | 74c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.3wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 72c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 187 | 58.8%110 W · 77 L | +18.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mamelodi vs. Fluminense end in a draw?this page
- Will Fluminense beat Mamelodi?No won
- Will Mamelodi beat Fluminense?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.