TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Champions League · resolved market

Will Real Madrid or Atlético de Madrid advance in the UCL Round of 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Real Madridof Real Madrid, Atlético Madrid
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$631,369
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$645,220

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $631,369 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 342 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Champions League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9d6b…3fc9backed Atlético Madrid38c106,745$40,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,563.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d20…a7c9backed Real Madrid62c106,745$66,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,563.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b39…aed5backed Atlético Madrid37c97,016$35,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,895.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x63f3…dfa2backed Real Madrid63c97,000$61,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,8901100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Real Madrid75c37,441$28,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,371.992437.5%9 W · 15 L-4.2wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-38.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x00e2…d56abacked Atlético Madrid25c31,849$8,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,007.822240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x073a…67f7backed Atlético Madrid0c15,440$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03cb…4bf9backed Real Madrid55c13,049$7,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,865.834235.7%15 W · 27 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3550…68b6backed Atlético Madrid1c10,054$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.392718.5%5 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick12cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33c2…9818backed Atlético Madrid47c8,788$4,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,097.5610845.4%49 W · 59 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+31.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Real Madrid67c7,113$4,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,317.6812848.4%62 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73cb…b0d0backed Atlético Madrid45c5,906$2,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,656.763839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-29.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Atlético Madrid26c5,464$1,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,407.0836851.1%188 W · 180 L+15.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3503…b8babacked Atlético Madrid46c5,343$2,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,457.895448.1%26 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb79…c2c6backed Atlético Madrid39c5,201$2,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,028.488748.3%42 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Atlético Madrid24c4,114$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.4517658.5%103 W · 73 L+10.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Real Madrid72c4,049$2,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,135.241136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aef…9337backed Real Madrid69c3,659$2,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.0924742.5%105 W · 142 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbbb…05a8backed Atlético Madrid27c3,655$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Real Madrid63c3,617$2,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,332.684443.2%19 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Atlético Madrid38c3,445$1,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,311.517560%105 W · 70 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed Real Madrid74c3,298$2,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.61741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-42%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x45d9…a89abacked Atlético Madrid26c3,197$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.193542.9%15 W · 20 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+40.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5303…d66ebacked Atlético Madrid50c3,120$1,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,548.851833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7b3…246abacked Atlético Madrid26c2,683$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.58742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde1…187fbacked Real Madrid74c2,023$1,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.98666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…4bccbacked Real Madrid55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90010631.1%33 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd44c…ab91backed Real Madrid61c2,000$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7801747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Atlético Madrid26c2,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.994619.6%9 W · 37 L-9.9wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-60%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xa800…bd7abacked Atlético Madrid28c1,993$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.042763%17 W · 10 L+5.6wins+0.21per pick42cpaid+33.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x512b…a346backed Real Madrid75c1,902$1,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7502…beafbacked Real Madrid74c1,869$1,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.86580%4 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick77cpaid+4.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Atlético Madrid26c1,750$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4556060%36 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x440e…81e4backed Real Madrid75c1,601$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.432100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Real Madrid54c1,530$826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.525450%127 W · 127 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Atlético Madrid31c1,088$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.64337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Atlético Madrid25c1,038$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.0223942.7%102 W · 137 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Atlético Madrid40c1,004$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.1717348%83 W · 90 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb71…8756backed Real Madrid53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-46.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aa4…c7c8backed Atlético Madrid1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104658.7%27 W · 19 L+4.6wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+20.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Atlético Madrid29c994.26$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.841618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-73.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Real Madrid77c984.96$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.4712147.1%57 W · 64 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x203b…acd1backed Atlético Madrid49c933.61$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.251926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Atlético Madrid25c925.65$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.394062.5%25 W · 15 L+6.0wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Atlético Madrid38c853.66$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.8117048.2%82 W · 88 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x101c…7df8backed Real Madrid73c807.02$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.9862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+68.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Real Madrid54c799.94$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.977346.6%34 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e9e…7bd8backed Real Madrid74c778.32$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.361546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked Real Madrid73c776$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.52560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39a1…af66backed Real Madrid65c734.77$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.983828.9%11 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+63.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf892…7f58backed Real Madrid51c733$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.171747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+306.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc64e…3cdbbacked Real Madrid73c732.46$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.074032.5%13 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-48%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c590backed Real Madrid56c716.93$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.1458.9%4 W · 41 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-47.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Real Madrid59c713.92$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.8829138.1%111 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked Real Madrid74c706.09$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.092250%11 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3a5…877dbacked Real Madrid61c606.76$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+62.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c39…9729backed Atlético Madrid50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.26per pick42cpaid-61%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf62d…d3a0backed Atlético Madrid36c552.41$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005242.3%22 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xafbd…8cb1backed Real Madrid71c518.5$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.021457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7cd…9973backed Atlético Madrid29c512.82$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6126…87eebacked Atlético Madrid26c510.44$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.330%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Atlético Madrid47c499.99$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23520133.8%68 W · 133 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccb9…6c31backed Real Madrid75c449.64$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.8580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Real Madrid62c403.23$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.232528%7 W · 18 L-4.9wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-47.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4b6c…f6aabacked Atlético Madrid26c400$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1041127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aee…c139backed Atlético Madrid26c399.99$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1044119.5%8 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid-46.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0e7…0af7backed Real Madrid74c371$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.46366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+84.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a86…5664backed Atlético Madrid27c370.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012230.3%37 W · 85 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+2.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Atlético Madrid30c354.53$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.2838935.2%137 W · 252 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Real Madrid57c333.72$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.56735.8%24 W · 43 L-6.2wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-25%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Real Madrid65c320.95$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.33825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa89f…6a27backed Atlético Madrid46c296.24$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.272339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5d3…ddcdbacked Atlético Madrid48c285.9$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1269…b18cbacked Real Madrid74c273.03$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.991735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.21per pick56cpaid-45.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe6e6…79b5backed Real Madrid74c270.27$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.27977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick73cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x22bf…782dbacked Real Madrid74c269.58$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.05771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9a2…7f83backed Real Madrid70c268.94$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.399645.8%44 W · 52 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x38bc…c0a2backed Real Madrid76c263.47$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.47540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-45.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe7…593bbacked Atlético Madrid61c260.55$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-41%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f0…3213backed Real Madrid62c258.06$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.061450%7 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Atlético Madrid39c250$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.57435.1%26 W · 48 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Atlético Madrid37c240.22$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.413225%8 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+41.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x542b…4b76backed Atlético Madrid43c233.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.51020%2 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-69.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed Real Madrid74c229$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5327…3b80backed Atlético Madrid50c220$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1106527.7%18 W · 47 L-8.3wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-32.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf6e2…8f10backed Real Madrid74c218$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+11.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xec6d…7c06backed Real Madrid61c214.54$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x560a…5a47backed Real Madrid74c202.7$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5f…bf45backed Atlético Madrid49c202.26$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004425%11 W · 33 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x002c…cbc2backed Real Madrid63c200$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8568…938fbacked Real Madrid74c195.14$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.74540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc4…f39bbacked Atlético Madrid26c192.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503324.2%8 W · 25 L-6.1wins-0.19per pick43cpaid-58.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x354a…eca7backed Real Madrid63c179.68$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.681457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b0c…3daabacked Real Madrid60c175$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+49.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b3d…8ed3backed Real Madrid58c173.53$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Atlético Madrid31c171.1$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.468060%48 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9708…d02fbacked Atlético Madrid41c170.73$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fd0…013cbacked Real Madrid74c168.09$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefef…cd06backed Real Madrid45c164.98$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.073847.4%18 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a3c…f427backed Real Madrid61c164.26$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.26366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.