Champions League · resolved market
Will Benfica or FC Barcelona advance in the UCL Round of 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3097e3411e523cd40ec395e38129c42be63249ee863d5b64656deb2e4ee39419
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Barcelonaof Benfica, Barcelona
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Benfica | 7c | 7,198$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.26 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Benfica | 4c | 5,336$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.45 | 247 | 42.5%105 W · 142 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Benfica | 6c | 2,489$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.34 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Benfica | 12c | 2,239$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.41 | 291 | 38.1%111 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Benfica | 18c | 2,130$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.4 | 176 | 58.5%103 W · 73 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdddb…d0b1backed Benfica | 19c | 1,657$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…3020backed Benfica | 7c | 1,520$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.95 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8219…f1fabacked Benfica | 18c | 1,220$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.6 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Benfica | 6c | 1,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…6ab0backed Benfica | 6c | 997.44$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Benfica | 8c | 883$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.06 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…8756backed Benfica | 21c | 783.75$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Benfica | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Benfica | 18c | 450.79$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.94 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…20abbacked Benfica | 7c | 314.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x002c…cbc2backed Barcelona | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeddc…d082backed Benfica | 8c | 276.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Benfica | 6c | 255$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…df81backed Barcelona | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…b4f9backed Barcelona | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbe…d7e1backed Benfica | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a94…a136backed Benfica | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea3a…f78ebacked Benfica | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Benfica | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 132 | 32.6%43 W · 89 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +172.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc11b…9384backed Barcelona | 80c | 75.12$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354a…eca7backed Barcelona | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1180…bfd5backed Barcelona | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Benfica or FC Barcelona advance in the UCL Round of 16?this page
- Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16?Bayern Munich won
- Will Borussia Dortmund or Lille advance in the UCL Round of 16?Dortmund won
- Will Club Brugge or Aston Villa advance in the UCL Round of 16?Aston Villa won
- Will Feyenoord or Inter Milan advance in the UCL Round of 16?Inter Milan won
- Will PSV Eindhoven or Arsenal advance in the UCL Round of 16?Arsenal won
- Will Paris Saint-Germain or Liverpool advance in the UCL Round of 16?PSG won
- Will Real Madrid or Atlético de Madrid advance in the UCL Round of 16?Real Madrid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.