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Champions League · resolved market

Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bayern Munichof Bayern Munich, Leverkusen
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$155,654
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$166,136

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,654 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Champions League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1a87…4e00backed Leverkusen42c67,994$28,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,886.188740.2%35 W · 52 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+81%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00e2…d56abacked Bayern Munich58c56,454$32,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,967.912240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Leverkusen4c7,008$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.612848.4%62 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Leverkusen42c5,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Bayern Munich58c4,782$2,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,010.054619.6%9 W · 37 L-9.9wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-60%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x03cb…4bf9backed Bayern Munich59c3,714$2,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,534.464235.7%15 W · 27 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Bayern Munich59c2,190$1,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891.244443.2%19 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Bayern Munich59c2,083$1,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.033565.7%23 W · 12 L+6.2wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+33.5%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Bayern Munich60c2,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8005939%23 W · 36 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Bayern Munich58c1,500$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6358040%32 W · 48 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Leverkusen4c1,484$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.951618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-73.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa928…9575backed Bayern Munich62c1,296$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdddb…d0b1backed Leverkusen40c1,003$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.25633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked Bayern Munich60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4002250%11 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aef…9337backed Leverkusen3c887.17$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1824742.5%105 W · 142 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224b…f6b8backed Leverkusen38c825.7$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.777946.8%37 W · 42 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb72…8b01backed Bayern Munich61c812.17$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.961338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-37.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a3f…e333backed Leverkusen4c810.76$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.45812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-67.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c3…269bbacked Leverkusen44c810.48$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.61955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d21…28ddbacked Bayern Munich62c781.1$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.251060%6 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39a1…af66backed Bayern Munich59c729.98$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.793828.9%11 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+63.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Leverkusen6c620.39$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2829138.1%111 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Leverkusen41c609.76$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502528%7 W · 18 L-4.9wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-47.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5446…662cbacked Leverkusen4c533.1$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee1f…9cedbacked Leverkusen4c532.63$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.16333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcee6…b3b7backed Leverkusen5c518.61$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.457041.4%29 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2af5…ea99backed Leverkusen39c385.98$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74a8…b4f9backed Bayern Munich61c349.18$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.18944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-39.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Bayern Munich59c342.27$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.914337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb295…4ee4backed Leverkusen39c333.31$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.993748.6%18 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Leverkusen40c312.77$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.11825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f0…3213backed Bayern Munich60c299.22$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.221450%7 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Bayern Munich57c278.97$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.378336.1%30 W · 53 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fd5…cf04backed Leverkusen39c265.33$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Leverkusen40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007435.1%26 W · 48 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7cd…9973backed Leverkusen40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf62d…d3a0backed Leverkusen44c224.91$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005242.3%22 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c9a…ff79backed Bayern Munich57c214.26$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.11643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Bayern Munich62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-46.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d31…9862backed Bayern Munich56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+51.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x874f…cacfbacked Leverkusen14c192.53$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x860f…422ebacked Bayern Munich59c150.89$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Leverkusen41c122$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0222547.6%107 W · 118 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8f0…0446backed Leverkusen41c121.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Leverkusen39c100.1$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.048160.5%49 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Leverkusen43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4324455.7%136 W · 108 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd22c…c656backed Leverkusen40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa337…9e54backed Leverkusen40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407266.7%48 W · 24 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked Leverkusen40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4013232.6%43 W · 89 L+12.1wins+0.09per pick23cpaid+172.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8b0d…1744backed Leverkusen40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+159%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9418…4f2abacked Leverkusen44c90.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4011429.8%34 W · 80 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a3c…f427backed Bayern Munich62c90.32$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.32366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Leverkusen42c84$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.933225%8 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+41.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa098…f430backed Bayern Munich60c83.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.33250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9b3…4369backed Bayern Munich60c83.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.33450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-18%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Bayern Munich59c83$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.036060%36 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f65…fd4abacked Bayern Munich58c81.03$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.03425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9729…4541backed Bayern Munich61c67.63$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Bayern Munich63c67.25$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.059442.6%40 W · 54 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-14.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe96e…8672backed Leverkusen40c62.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0871…d9f8backed Bayern Munich58c55.15$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.16540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-32.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f19…3aedbacked Leverkusen38c52.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-86%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7543…f11dbacked Leverkusen39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x45a1…d31fbacked Leverkusen41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.51926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-44.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb454…a0e0backed Bayern Munich60c41.55$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ff4…55bcbacked Bayern Munich61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.61526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid+91.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91c4…d91cbacked Bayern Munich61c38.08$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.85250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce9…7581backed Leverkusen39c38.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x354a…eca7backed Leverkusen39c37.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.81457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae5…bd27backed Leverkusen36c35.32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x00ef…2b9fbacked Leverkusen39c33.85$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x558d…6abbbacked Bayern Munich61c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7315…848abacked Bayern Munich61c32.38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044a…c8acbacked Leverkusen38c31.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a6b…2086backed Bayern Munich62c28.58$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x41dd…a601backed Bayern Munich64c28.27$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.182100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+74.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ec1…6060backed Leverkusen36c28.27$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1830%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4682…de69backed Leverkusen39c28.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.011546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd98…129cbacked Leverkusen40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d51…f56cbacked Bayern Munich56c24.81$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.811040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4845…6e62backed Bayern Munich61c24.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.59757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0474…5155backed Bayern Munich62c24.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.19683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick51cpaid+46.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0313…67dbbacked Bayern Munich61c22.92$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.04955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+28%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99b5…7669backed Bayern Munich62c22.85$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x793f…4ee5backed Bayern Munich59c22.78$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2353…6a76backed Bayern Munich61c21.31$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.31633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-45.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccf1…2bd5backed Bayern Munich64c20.12$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.242100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ed1…1240backed Bayern Munich58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2144…bc50backed Bayern Munich59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf5c…3912backed Bayern Munich61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.81764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1ce…ad51backed Bayern Munich58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x06be…2a89backed Bayern Munich63c17.63$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.52475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4935…5087backed Bayern Munich64c16.92$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.092100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+97.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x60b8…2c85backed Bayern Munich70c15.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.65425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.