TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2353…6a76

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
52
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 54 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.19per pick41cpaid-67.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.48
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$14.42
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$12.88
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$9.85
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 14 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+44%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+142.9%+$21.43
Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ilie Bolojan?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$17
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.66
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and BSW form the next German Government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+126.1%+$25.21
Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+657.5%+$230.12
BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+257.1%+$51.43
FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
All 11 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2025, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-45.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-51.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+93.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+143.9%+$15.18
Trump meets with Zelenskyy in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$5.14
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$23.48
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EST-100%-$14.15
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+525%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST+525%+$52.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+306.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+306.5%+$45.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+152.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+152.8%+$38.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$17.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Sep 26, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Plasma >$4B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$6.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 23, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT+34.4%+$9.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Sep 21, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the UK recognize Palestine in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$9.22
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mary Sheffield win the 2025 Detroit mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+30.4%+$7.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.48
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.