Chess · resolved market
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b7d7e34de7f7ebabc78f7d97728239d0287c52bb065e3ea5f67a1788721ce5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $222,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $244,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $222,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 246 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked No | 35c | 9,928$3,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,479.18 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 61c | 8,872$5,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,431.66 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 27c | 7,129$1,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,889.4 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x428a…5547backed Yes | 57c | 5,556$3,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,387.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed No | 4c | 5,415$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.24 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb52c…450cbacked Yes | 75c | 5,224$3,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,305.95 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed Yes | 49c | 4,800$2,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,451.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4817…6bdbbacked No | 51c | 3,919$2,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,009.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 50c | 3,899$1,934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,933.92 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 65c | 3,506$2,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,212.63 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 75c | 3,334$2,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 27c | 2,700$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed No | 19c | 2,402$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 31c | 2,189$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.19 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2933…2e06backed Yes | 60c | 2,100$1,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb7…44f2backed No | 51c | 1,856$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.19 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 49c | 1,829$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…e83fbacked Yes | 61c | 1,753$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…819ebacked Yes | 48c | 1,686$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 29c | 1,671$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.08 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…fd5ebacked No | 24c | 1,663$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.29 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf584…d8dabacked Yes | 72c | 1,656$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6380…e74fbacked Yes | 67c | 1,651$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…353fbacked Yes | 53c | 1,612$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed No | 39c | 1,569$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed No | 5c | 1,463$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…7f75backed Yes | 50c | 1,306$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 24c | 1,223$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.87 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…6d97backed No | 6c | 1,218$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.36 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 54c | 1,200$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…4b76backed Yes | 59c | 1,099$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33cf…d71bbacked Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc99…e0a3backed No | 52c | 884.96$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed No | 48c | 834.13$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.77 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -12.3wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Yes | 76c | 802.84$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabca…cfd1backed Yes | 51c | 784.31$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0f…ec43backed Yes | 62c | 721.16$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked No | 53c | 690.76$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…3ea6backed Yes | 53c | 682.55$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80b…04b3backed No | 46c | 670.16$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…68b6backed No | 40c | 654.64$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked No | 54c | 637.37$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be1…e799backed Yes | 50c | 602$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…b232backed Yes | 75c | 600$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…ab07backed Yes | 49c | 600$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yes | 65c | 589.83$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.58 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed No | 16c | 554.81$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 74c | 548.66$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.65 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2a…43d5backed Yes | 65c | 542.36$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…9928backed Yes | 75c | 541.4$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5912…6c5fbacked Yes | 78c | 538.88$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e80…4dddbacked Yes | 61c | 537.65$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…f36cbacked Yes | 58c | 519.52$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…72dabacked Yes | 70c | 512.84$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 55c | 504.08$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.08 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa310…4c56backed Yes | 52c | 484.64$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb04…8b8abacked No | 9c | 477.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +264.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b1…f2f9backed No | 24c | 469.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 59c | 461$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…0de1backed Yes | 62c | 442.25$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x513d…edcabacked Yes | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…efa8backed No | 48c | 404.15$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…5f5ebacked Yes | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked Yes | 48c | 390.59$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 17c | 370.46$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +294.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked No | 52c | 349.97$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa318…0c71backed Yes | 61c | 344.6$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x669c…8e90backed Yes | 58c | 342.25$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…bb4abacked Yes | 71c | 341.96$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.41 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 47c | 322.81$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.33 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…5703backed Yes | 69c | 316.36$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07be…8bf9backed Yes | 47c | 299.99$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 61c | 281$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…c822backed Yes | 74c | 279.18$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…bd6fbacked Yes | 65c | 270.33$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…4275backed Yes | 55c | 270$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed Yes | 71c | 266.15$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 52c | 258.97$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4a…73d2backed Yes | 76c | 258.41$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ee…cf2cbacked Yes | 50c | 248.4$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.2 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…f163backed Yes | 76c | 234.13$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 49c | 222$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 45c | 221$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.58 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 48c | 208$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ae…3808backed Yes | 49c | 204.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…ab4cbacked No | 45c | 203.72$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.99 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…23dabacked No | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa659…1eaabacked Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f72…9a74backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2b…2030backed No | 44c | 199.98$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.99 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb80…5dbfbacked No | 42c | 199.24$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…7d27backed Yes | 50c | 198.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed No | 52c | 196.3$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.07 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…8786backed No | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes | 45c | 194.33$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?this page
- Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
- Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
- Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
- Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
- Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
- Will Jan-Krzysztof Duda win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
- Will Levon Aronian win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
- Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
- Will Nihal Sarin win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
- Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
- Will Vladimir Fedoseev win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
- Will Vladislav Artemiev win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
- Will Wei Yi win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.