TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,958
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,929

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,958 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7aa5…6292backed Yes4c3,323$120 inLost-$119.582313%3 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-66.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c2,966$23 inLost-$22.741757.4%13 W · 162 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-42.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1669…22efbacked Yes8c1,946$165 inLost-$165333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes6c1,741$100 inLost-$1001421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-51.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1c4…4b97backed Yes2c1,476$30 inLost-$29.530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09e6…24a1backed Yes4c1,339$54 inLost-$53.54358.6%3 W · 32 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid+21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bb7…44f2backed Yes5c1,210$60 inLost-$60.481216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-63%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x880c…440abacked Yes1c1,204$12 inLost-$12.0411539.1%45 W · 70 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes1c1,034$12 inLost-$11.63100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x428a…5547backed Yes5c1,011$51 inLost-$50.55333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-41.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked Yes4c1,005$40 inLost-$40.044010%4 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-39.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf15a…6df2backed Yes5c799.99$40 inLost-$40616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08a2…f2c2backed Yes4c654.41$25 inLost-$25.451513.3%2 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick6cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e6e…99eabacked Yes3c633.29$19 inLost-$19825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-56.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb80…5dbfbacked Yes2c471$11 inLost-$11.3240%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf515…e56bbacked Yes3c434$15 inLost-$15.0290%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes8c367.34$29 inLost-$29767.9%6 W · 70 L-12.3wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-66.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xec75…8786backed Yes6c350$20 inLost-$205324.5%13 W · 40 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes4c285$11 inLost-$11.371136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca14…11bebacked Yes8c256.84$20 inLost-$201540%6 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+117.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes5c200$10 inLost-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb48b…648ebacked No80c175.14$140 inWon+$35.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe75…b5c0backed Yes6c170$10 inLost-$10.270%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.