Chess · resolved market
Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4709607af108ed63c529c90154aabd1d362ecb6bdb2243844c990ec34107e3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7aa5…6292backed Yes | 11c | 7,701$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.93 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Yes | 24c | 6,316$1,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,545.4 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a6…fe39backed Yes | 24c | 4,097$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c5…7a13backed Yes | 17c | 4,031$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.39 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…6d97backed Yes | 12c | 3,801$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.17 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,296$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…1f4fbacked Yes | 8c | 3,259$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 15c | 3,116$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.56 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 4c | 3,004$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.37 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…fd5ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,620$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.23 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 17c | 2,297$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.15 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 24c | 2,118$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.21 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed No | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 22c | 1,973$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.57 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5646…3819backed Yes | 25c | 1,690$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb7…44f2backed Yes | 10c | 1,498$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.8 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked Yes | 16c | 1,107$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.69 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c7…7f70backed Yes | 25c | 1,018$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 12c | 999.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 961.35$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.31 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1669…22efbacked Yes | 11c | 900$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 11c | 809.38$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.12 | 123 | 13%16 W · 107 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 12c | 690$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccda…4937backed Yes | 27c | 592.12$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd12b…0af1backed Yes | 6c | 517.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x722c…515fbacked Yes | 23c | 479.01$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…ab07backed Yes | 13c | 469$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4817…6bdbbacked Yes | 25c | 434.92$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…9928backed No | 75c | 399.2$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb04…8b8abacked Yes | 11c | 345.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +264.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa318…0c71backed Yes | 15c | 343.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf515…e56bbacked Yes | 3c | 334$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…8786backed Yes | 12c | 333.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…68b6backed Yes | 26c | 309.31$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…bb4abacked Yes | 25c | 270$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb80…5dbfbacked Yes | 26c | 269$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03c3…f47abacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb098…1038backed Yes | 11c | 227.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…ab4cbacked Yes | 27c | 215.54$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2b…2030backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed Yes | 39c | 192$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 24c | 187$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…90fabacked Yes | 16c | 184.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf95b…1692backed Yes | 16c | 180$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc99…e0a3backed Yes | 19c | 164.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x513d…edcabacked Yes | 13c | 161.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555f…012bbacked Yes | 24c | 140$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…4c3abacked Yes | 13c | 119.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe75…b5c0backed Yes | 14c | 105$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbc…3a12backed Yes | 16c | 104.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27dc…cde2backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab4d…6546backed No | 70c | 96$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 75c | 92$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…55bfbacked Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c9…10d1backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…00e4backed Yes | 26c | 75.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3795…4c73backed Yes | 22c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…dc21backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b1…d224backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?this page
- Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
- Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
- Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
- Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
- Will Jan-Krzysztof Duda win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
- Will Levon Aronian win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
- Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?Yes won
- Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
- Will Nihal Sarin win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
- Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
- Will Vladimir Fedoseev win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
- Will Vladislav Artemiev win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
- Will Wei Yi win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.