Chess · resolved market
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a4aa2df35123bbd1d1a9a87b43ad11cff6a1f480fc16661597ba97c06c30f0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $161,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $147,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7aa5…6292backed Yes | 15c | 24,636$3,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,672.07 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ef…1636backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…68b6backed Yes | 3c | 7,417$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 11c | 6,265$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.31 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb7…44f2backed Yes | 15c | 5,090$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.52 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…6d97backed Yes | 9c | 4,260$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 11c | 3,760$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.91 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 8c | 3,670$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.13 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes | 18c | 2,810$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 11c | 2,538$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.6 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…bb4abacked Yes | 3c | 1,859$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked Yes | 9c | 1,334$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.06 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426c…46c9backed Yes | 10c | 1,312$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,154$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 15c | 1,133$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 11c | 1,050$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 123 | 13%16 W · 107 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed Yes | 2c | 963$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c3…f47abacked Yes | 13c | 802$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed Yes | 14c | 800$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…1f4fbacked Yes | 11c | 710.35$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…fd5ebacked Yes | 8c | 709.42$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.26 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…7c09backed Yes | 15c | 605.47$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a30…fca1backed Yes | 13c | 598$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2b…2030backed Yes | 5c | 547.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9207…763ebacked Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 440$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…b5c9backed Yes | 4c | 410$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb04…8b8abacked Yes | 15c | 400.39$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +264.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…6df2backed Yes | 15c | 393.83$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 9c | 383.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb80…5dbfbacked Yes | 10c | 364.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 13c | 344.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa318…0c71backed Yes | 12c | 344$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbc…3a12backed Yes | 7c | 326.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c4…4b97backed Yes | 12c | 300$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…90fabacked Yes | 10c | 293.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yes | 9c | 290$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 7c | 290$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 16c | 227.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc047…fecbbacked Yes | 14c | 189.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…9a1ebacked Yes | 12c | 165.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4592…bab3backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c1…c0c4backed Yes | 14c | 141.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa400…3816backed Yes | 12c | 140.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 15c | 129.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50c7…f87ebacked Yes | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…97f4backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…5996backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked Yes | 11c | 97.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 18c | 89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 14c | 86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27dc…cde2backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 16c | 64.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?this page
- Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
- Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
- Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
- Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
- Will Jan-Krzysztof Duda win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
- Will Levon Aronian win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
- Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?Yes won
- Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
- Will Nihal Sarin win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
- Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
- Will Vladimir Fedoseev win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
- Will Vladislav Artemiev win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
- Will Wei Yi win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.