TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x8b88…5f5e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
53
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Boxing, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Boxing at 55 out of 100; worst Tennis at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT2653.8%14 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverevbacked Jannik Sinner · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$252Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$168
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor Fritzbacked Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST+51.5%+$25.5
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Arthur Rinderknechbacked Medvedev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$100.05
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Alex de Minaurbacked Medvedev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$94.25
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Rinderknech vs Felix Auger-Aliassimebacked Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$73
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Zizou Bergs vs Novak Djokovicbacked Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$24
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Holger Rune vs Valentin Vacherotbacked Rune · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$73
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Arthur Rinderknechbacked Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.37
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Dalibor Svrcina vs Daniil Medvedevbacked Medvedev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$14.3
China Open: Learner Tien vs Lorenzo Musettibacked Musetti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.32
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$251.94
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 ATP Cincinnati?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.4
ATP Toronto – Muller vs. Rune backed Rune · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$13.65
ATP Toronto – Musetti vs. Michelsenbacked Musetti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.85
ATP Washington D.C – De Minaur vs. Nakashimabacked De Minaur · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$27.2
ATP Washington D.C – Medvedev vs. Moutetbacked Medvedev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.46
Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$194.18
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$51
Wimbledon: Sinner vs. Shelton backed Sinner · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$60
Wimbledon: Fritz vs. Diallo backed Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT+37%+$56.27
Terra Wortmann: Bublik vs. Khachanovbacked Bublik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+59%+$17.7
Terra Wortmann: Rublev vs. Etcheverrybacked Rublev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Terra Wortmann: Auger-Aliassime vs. Khachanovbacked Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Terra Wortmann: Halys vs. Medvedevbacked Medvedev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$9.41
Will Jannik Sinner win the US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2024, EDT+138.1%+$77.14
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+34.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Sep 14, 2025, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+100.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Boxing — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence Crawford backed Crawford · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$669Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$1,242.58
Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2backed Usyk · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$2,930Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT+31.8%+$932.97
Will Usyk beat Fury?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$299Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST+85.2%+$254.87
All 3 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$55
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$3,950Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+116%+$4,582.3
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-11-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.02
Will Liverpool vs. Aston Villa end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$33
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+137.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$19,387Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+137.2%+$26,595.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$998Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+49.3%+$491.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+37.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$7,187Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+37.9%+$2,726.13
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Aug 22, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ethereum all time high before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$24.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$506Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$506.39
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$30.68
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$100.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,502Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$1,502.17
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.