TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Rinderknech vs Felix Auger-Aliassime

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Rinderknechof Rinderknech, Auger-Aliassime
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$94,134
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$98,501

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,134 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Rinderknech54c17,145$9,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,924.631,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Rinderknech26c15,240$3,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,323.252,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6937…085dbacked Auger-Aliassime73c13,780$10,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,119.271741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Rinderknech48c12,445$6,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,413.348,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Auger-Aliassime50c8,053$4,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,046.615950.8%30 W · 29 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b9b…211dbacked Auger-Aliassime32c7,832$2,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,523.082147.6%10 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick61cpaid-1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Rinderknech49c7,700$3,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,918.012,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed Auger-Aliassime69c7,165$4,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,922.5413253.8%71 W · 61 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Rinderknech60c6,618$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,617.5611,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Auger-Aliassime64c5,000$3,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,21044360%266 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Rinderknech54c4,986$2,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,297.8317046.5%79 W · 91 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Auger-Aliassime39c4,561$1,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,759.0957645.5%262 W · 314 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb351…5fbfbacked Auger-Aliassime65c4,000$2,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6101030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3d0…5c32backed Auger-Aliassime39c3,743$1,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,454.1122629.2%66 W · 160 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Rinderknech78c2,882$2,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.5865242.8%279 W · 373 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x024d…b912backed Auger-Aliassime35c2,851$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005151%26 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked Rinderknech66c2,178$1,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.356747.8%32 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde91…f20abacked Auger-Aliassime74c2,000$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,479.846035%21 W · 39 L-5.7wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-16.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Rinderknech25c1,700$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,27536440.9%149 W · 215 L-13.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe31a…adffbacked Auger-Aliassime74c1,500$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.8125244.4%112 W · 140 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Auger-Aliassime36c1,494$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.251,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Rinderknech27c1,400$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,025.413935.3%49 W · 90 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8de5…e957backed Auger-Aliassime74c1,351$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.749452.1%49 W · 45 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Rinderknech26c1,159$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.862742.4%266 W · 361 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Auger-Aliassime73c1,050$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.516140.4%65 W · 96 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf5c…48f9backed Auger-Aliassime19c1,047$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.1815447.4%73 W · 81 L+14.1wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+22.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb852…bfaebacked Rinderknech25c1,025$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.7429634.1%101 W · 195 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ef5…325ebacked Rinderknech36c1,000$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6459961.6%61 W · 38 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9354…6502backed Rinderknech66c958.85$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.6975547.8%361 W · 394 L+0.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8465…6bbdbacked Rinderknech27c925.93$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.931560%9 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+62.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf3f6…2f6bbacked Auger-Aliassime21c863.49$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1821850%9 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+28.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bee…ca01backed Rinderknech68c716.11$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.612050%60 W · 60 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09b6…f48dbacked Auger-Aliassime33c602.77$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.8832050%160 W · 160 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dcd…1722backed Auger-Aliassime11c600$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666126.2%16 W · 45 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57f3…7304backed Rinderknech27c500$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3652259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+26.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x623a…0b32backed Auger-Aliassime74c500$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3702339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xecba…5fb4backed Auger-Aliassime28c400$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11311457.9%66 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Auger-Aliassime40c400$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1597744.2%34 W · 43 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f7f…90c5backed Rinderknech42c388.1$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.14738.3%18 W · 29 L-7.5wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-32%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Rinderknech27c370.37$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.3773147.9%350 W · 381 L-16.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ded…9025backed Auger-Aliassime5c360$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.224837.5%93 W · 155 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Rinderknech38c309$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.451,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27df…e67cbacked Auger-Aliassime65c307.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b85…e89abacked Auger-Aliassime75c266.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+19.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Auger-Aliassime42c261.43$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.72,33546.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L+55.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa263…6cf0backed Auger-Aliassime36c253.67$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.3217538.3%67 W · 108 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Auger-Aliassime63c251.43$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.14042.5%17 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d81…259bbacked Auger-Aliassime29c250.75$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.982740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe64f…5976backed Auger-Aliassime64c242.59$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15514940.9%61 W · 88 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe49c…773ebacked Auger-Aliassime69c217.28$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.365438.9%21 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2db8…e042backed Auger-Aliassime20c200.73$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4074961.8%463 W · 286 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Auger-Aliassime44c200$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8762952.1%328 W · 301 L+1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f83…7252backed Rinderknech30c200$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1406719.4%13 W · 54 L-7.3wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-38.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7373…074dbacked Rinderknech30c200$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1401926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x50f7…7272backed Auger-Aliassime76c179.21$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.29263%58 W · 34 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Rinderknech27c177.5$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.5724846%114 W · 134 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf17…3eeebacked Auger-Aliassime10c170$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.13327.3%9 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-41.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rinderknech24c166.17$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.291,03954.6%567 W · 472 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Auger-Aliassime65c161$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.6535032.3%113 W · 237 L-9.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61c1…0513backed Auger-Aliassime65c153.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,28760.7%781 W · 506 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe98a…4f3fbacked Auger-Aliassime20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+49.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x781e…2484backed Auger-Aliassime26c150$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd82a…5fcfbacked Rinderknech38c149.98$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.4818943.4%82 W · 107 L-8.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa446…d9c6backed Auger-Aliassime67c149.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9815354.2%83 W · 70 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfdb…7a75backed Auger-Aliassime75c141.95$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.0812560%75 W · 50 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-12.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9a8c…b52cbacked Auger-Aliassime74c135.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006737.3%25 W · 42 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe233…14a3backed Auger-Aliassime76c131.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10038356.9%218 W · 165 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Rinderknech34c122.06$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.0625352.2%132 W · 121 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb34b…8c60backed Auger-Aliassime64c118.66$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.41475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb25…0e5bbacked Auger-Aliassime33c116.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.233246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7753…73cebacked Auger-Aliassime74c101.24$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9223670.8%167 W · 69 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+1.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Auger-Aliassime75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758643%37 W · 49 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-23.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b88…5f5ebacked Auger-Aliassime73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732653.8%14 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd843…7d56backed Rinderknech26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746243.5%27 W · 35 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+21.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4790…2dd7backed Auger-Aliassime76c98.95$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759154.9%50 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73c4…a92dbacked Auger-Aliassime75c81.14$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.25038%19 W · 31 L-0.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x227d…e5b6backed Auger-Aliassime31c80.3$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…05f5backed Rinderknech25c80$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602857.1%16 W · 12 L+3.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+42.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x89e0…e058backed Rinderknech50c75.44$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.681145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…06c9backed Rinderknech27c74.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.0726045%117 W · 143 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked Auger-Aliassime75c72.63$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.84332.6%14 W · 29 L-6.0wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-34.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed Auger-Aliassime69c72.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060641.6%252 W · 354 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa13b…1a4dbacked Auger-Aliassime54c72.35$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.272634.6%9 W · 17 L-3.7wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-22.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0b0f…df88backed Auger-Aliassime33c60.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe698…35eabacked Rinderknech28c54.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.321040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x056e…c0f4backed Auger-Aliassime74c54.05$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7daf…f1b3backed Auger-Aliassime74c54.05$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401560%9 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Auger-Aliassime76c52.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403145.2%14 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8d4…8d3cbacked Auger-Aliassime76c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387955.7%44 W · 35 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick65cpaid-15.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9e63…7e29backed Auger-Aliassime78c44.74$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353154.8%17 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x080a…8b56backed Auger-Aliassime75c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b32…8166backed Auger-Aliassime51c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.41952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x386d…a920backed Auger-Aliassime72c40$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.83050%15 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+91.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f11…da05backed Auger-Aliassime76c39.46$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.991250%6 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…f10cbacked Auger-Aliassime35c37.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ee…8067backed Auger-Aliassime68c33.82$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2349955.1%275 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Auger-Aliassime70c32$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.42138.1%8 W · 13 L-3.7wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-38.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3306…9687backed Auger-Aliassime38c31.79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121080%8 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+36.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb41c…2f0dbacked Rinderknech65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.776653%35 W · 31 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2fa7…04bfbacked Auger-Aliassime69c30.04$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.736949.3%34 W · 35 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.