TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x623a…0b32

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
45
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: MLB, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category MLB at 53 out of 100; worst Tennis at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST2339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Tennis — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Qatar Open: Arthur Fils vs Jakub Mensikbacked Mensik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$120
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Amanda Anisimovabacked Anisimova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$205
Qatar Total Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Victoria Mbokobacked Ostapenko · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$247.5
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor Fritzbacked Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$518Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST+44.9%+$232.5
WTA Finals, Stefanie Graf Group: Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauffbacked Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$396Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+51.5%+$204
Open de Moselle: Clement Tabur vs Alexander Blockxbacked Blockx · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$162.5
Hellenic Championship: Sebastian Korda vs Damir Dzumhurbacked Korda · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$380Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+31.6%+$120
Hellenic Championship: Damir Dzumhur vs Jacob Fearnleybacked Dzumhur · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+185.7%+$59.05
Rolex Paris Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Jannik Sinnerbacked Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$90
Chennai Open: Polina Iatcenko vs Katarzyna Kawabacked Kawa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$255
Rolex Paris Masters: Corentin Moutet vs Reilly Opelkabacked Opelka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$170
Swiss Indoors Basel: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Joao Fonsecabacked Fokina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$414Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$414
Pan Pacific Open: Belinda Bencic vs Karolina Muchovabacked Muchova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$248
Guangzhou Open: Ella Seidel vs Leolia Jeanjeanbacked Seidel · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$558Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$342
Japan Women's Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sorana Cirsteabacked Cirstea · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$330Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$170
BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Jacob Fearnley vs Elias Ymerbacked Ymer · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT+376.2%+$395
Ningbo Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Zeynep Sonmezbacked Sonmez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
European Open: Zizou Bergs vs Raphael Collignonbacked Bergs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$275
European Open: Francisco Comesana vs David Goffinbacked Goffin · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$32
Almaty Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Hamad Medjedovicbacked Nakashima · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$184
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Novak Djokovic vs Valentin Vacherotbacked Vacherot · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT+566.7%+$212.5
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Rinderknech vs Felix Auger-Aliassimebacked Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$370Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$370
Wuhan Tennis Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakinabacked Rybakina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$44
All 23 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1010%1 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid+156.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aztec launch a token in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Lighter Airdrop on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Lighter Airdrop on December 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+2,465.8%+$493.16
No airdrop in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$120
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Lighter Airdrop on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Lighter Airdrop on December 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Lighter Airdrop on December 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$19.67
Lighter Airdrop on December 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Lighter Airdrop on December 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$15
All 10 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Magic vs. Sunsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$353Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$352.5
Cavaliers vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$255
Heat vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$459Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+96.1%+$441
Clippers vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+78.6%+$110
All 4 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+177.8%+$35.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Nov 8, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.