Tennis · resolved market
Almaty Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Hamad Medjedovic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8058151f33c3e2c3e1a86318ffc1af6c78bea7231e5698c38c42953d5acfcde3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nakashimaof Nakashima, Medjedovic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Medjedovic | 52c | 19,332$10,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,061.62 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Medjedovic | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Nakashima | 48c | 11,430$5,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,915.62 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nakashima | 63c | 7,468$4,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,771.43 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Nakashima | 55c | 2,820$1,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273.68 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Medjedovic | 23c | 2,182$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.85 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Nakashima | 64c | 1,376$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.6 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Medjedovic | 45c | 1,233$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.63 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Medjedovic | 35c | 1,120$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Medjedovic | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Nakashima | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 252 | 44.4%112 W · 140 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Nakashima | 50c | 954.75$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.37 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Medjedovic | 13c | 942$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.98 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…6f22backed Nakashima | 50c | 927.7$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.85 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nakashima | 47c | 738.81$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.39 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb7…082dbacked Nakashima | 55c | 727.07$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.18 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f83…7252backed Medjedovic | 24c | 600$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Medjedovic | 46c | 466.99$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.81 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df5…b34abacked Nakashima | 58c | 447.37$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.37 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57f3…7304backed Medjedovic | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…0b32backed Nakashima | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Medjedovic | 38c | 367.22$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.8 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Nakashima | 50c | 322.02$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.02 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Medjedovic | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Medjedovic | 46c | 287.8$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.39 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Nakashima | 54c | 246.02$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.17 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Nakashima | 49c | 240$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Nakashima | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Medjedovic | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Nakashima | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Medjedovic | 50c | 102$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Medjedovic | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 287 | 47.7%137 W · 150 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Nakashima | 54c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Nakashima | 53c | 72.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 1,178 | 46.3%545 W · 633 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Nakashima | 58c | 68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Medjedovic | 40c | 63.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Nakashima | 79c | 61.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Medjedovic | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98d…745ebacked Medjedovic | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Medjedovic | 42c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Nakashima | 53c | 43.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Nakashima | 54c | 29.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…05f5backed Nakashima | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.