Tennis · resolved market
Wuhan Tennis Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95a73813295a5bbeed7a133a55be778cbda89b1da0b3482bf9b05c0d8d3bd4e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabalenkaof Sabalenka, Rybakina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Sabalenka | 51c | 17,564$9,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,529.94 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rybakina | 35c | 17,562$6,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,138.57 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Rybakina | 36c | 11,571$4,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,193.93 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Rybakina | 41c | 10,144$4,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,190.03 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Sabalenka | 60c | 10,000$5,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,026.66 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Sabalenka | 57c | 9,249$5,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,964.67 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Sabalenka | 57c | 8,830$5,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,810.04 | 189 | 33.9%64 W · 125 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rybakina | 44c | 6,025$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,650.39 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa0…7894backed Sabalenka | 55c | 3,741$2,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,684.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Rybakina | 43c | 3,500$1,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,505 | 198 | 35.4%70 W · 128 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Rybakina | 25c | 3,236$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.3 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Rybakina | 49c | 2,926$1,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425.74 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -16.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Sabalenka | 51c | 2,773$1,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,354.67 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f5…e4c2backed Sabalenka | 57c | 2,750$1,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.69 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Rybakina | 44c | 2,156$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.6 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Rybakina | 51c | 2,078$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.64 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rybakina | 43c | 1,746$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.82 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Rybakina | 44c | 1,705$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.19 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Rybakina | 44c | 1,690$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.79 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x225f…5ec6backed Sabalenka | 55c | 1,656$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.03 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Rybakina | 43c | 1,329$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.45 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Rybakina | 42c | 1,250$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Rybakina | 44c | 1,200$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.01 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…e89abacked Sabalenka | 75c | 1,054$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.92 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Sabalenka | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf341…d026backed Sabalenka | 57c | 898$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +133.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Rybakina | 44c | 452.82$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.23 | 324 | 48.1%156 W · 168 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781e…2484backed Rybakina | 7c | 375$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Sabalenka | 76c | 314$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.37 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Rybakina | 43c | 310$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.87 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0a…0684backed Rybakina | 45c | 282.02$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.91 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Rybakina | 25c | 250.66$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Rybakina | 45c | 222.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Sabalenka | 49c | 204.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.69 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Sabalenka | 69c | 200$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Sabalenka | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Sabalenka | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Sabalenka | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Sabalenka | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc80…e7bebacked Sabalenka | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Sabalenka | 57c | 170$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe56b…2a2dbacked Sabalenka | 79c | 127.91$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5a…5787backed Sabalenka | 57c | 110.07$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Sabalenka | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49c…773ebacked Rybakina | 43c | 100.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Rybakina | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57f3…7304backed Sabalenka | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…0b32backed Rybakina | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Sabalenka | 60c | 86.67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Sabalenka | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb34b…8c60backed Sabalenka | 60c | 85.85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…e6dfbacked Sabalenka | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…f98fbacked Sabalenka | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3149…9762backed Sabalenka | 60c | 73.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba4f…7ecebacked Sabalenka | 60c | 63.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Sabalenka | 57c | 56.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Sabalenka | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…05f5backed Sabalenka | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fed…3b22backed Sabalenka | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.