TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Suns

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sunsof Magic, Suns
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,401,368
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,450,277

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,401,368 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,044 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xada5…db70backed Magic42c289,255$121,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,386.751354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Suns58c258,620$150,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108,620.3843542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc311…44fcbacked Magic42c240,320$100,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100,001.243135.5%11 W · 20 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Suns59c200,000$118,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81,999.9632653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a57…2afabacked Suns59c135,023$79,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,685.278944.9%40 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Suns66c100,521$65,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,524.451,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cc6…9df6backed Magic71c53,640$37,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,913.022532%8 W · 17 L-5.0wins-0.20per pick52cpaid-37.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Suns59c53,390$31,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,889.713847.4%18 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Suns50c49,798$25,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,657.1783039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Suns58c45,000$26,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,897.6319751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Suns53c43,888$23,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,627.245850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e3a…3246backed Magic1c42,816$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.1619954.8%109 W · 90 L+12.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Suns57c40,960$23,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,794.764,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde18…83bcbacked Magic20c39,826$7,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,844.719250%46 W · 46 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Magic38c36,009$13,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,760.125,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Magic41c34,400$14,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,10448352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Magic44c33,221$14,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,506.342,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Suns51c32,713$16,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,037.212,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Magic24c30,054$7,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,320.531,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2487…fa80backed Magic41c30,000$12,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,249.9618045%81 W · 99 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Magic48c28,502$13,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,787.364,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0a…4a63backed Magic41c26,799$10,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,987.484327.9%12 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Suns58c25,000$14,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,50037539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Magic49c25,000$12,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,249.9919653.6%105 W · 91 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc3ea…bb01backed Suns56c25,000$13,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,099.965648.2%27 W · 29 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6fd…f43ebacked Suns60c24,545$14,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,858.8810746.7%50 W · 57 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ff3…1aa9backed Suns57c23,492$13,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,136.4819645.9%90 W · 106 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed Suns43c23,246$9,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,250.59043.3%39 W · 51 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x183d…1270backed Magic57c22,820$12,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,996.684619.6%9 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-45.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked Suns46c21,791$9,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,794.633411.8%4 W · 30 L-8.5wins-0.25per pick37cpaid-62%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x6d10…e270backed Magic48c20,500$9,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,822.475139.2%20 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Suns57c20,000$11,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,6001,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Magic40c20,000$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,999.991,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Suns58c19,651$11,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,308.7572450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Magic12c19,443$2,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,357.681,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd915…1d54backed Suns54c19,400$10,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,003.992965.5%19 W · 10 L+4.4wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+33.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfe6e…ddf7backed Magic46c19,400$9,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,003.933129%9 W · 22 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-47.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Magic67c18,873$12,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,644.7846342.5%197 W · 266 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Suns33c18,313$6,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,269.684847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Magic42c18,311$7,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,674.491,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9569…27fdbacked Magic42c17,854$7,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,430.5213959.7%83 W · 56 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4e1abacked Magic45c16,975$7,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,560.6915147%71 W · 80 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Magic55c16,427$8,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,993.2817249.4%85 W · 87 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Suns55c16,186$8,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,204.489,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Magic45c15,885$7,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,182.0993148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed Magic46c15,859$7,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,295.2116339.3%64 W · 99 L-10.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x83b4…13c9backed Magic42c15,629$6,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,5541330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1041…f452backed Magic47c14,378$6,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,720.9526949.1%132 W · 137 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked Magic42c11,969$5,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,02720948.8%102 W · 107 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48e2…2a5fbacked Magic45c11,670$5,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,240.0117550.9%89 W · 86 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2580…1d56backed Magic41c11,513$4,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,720.4811737.6%44 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Magic42c11,457$4,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,811.9435744.3%158 W · 199 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19be…2541backed Suns54c11,200$6,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,1529758.8%57 W · 40 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe021…e299backed Magic46c11,200$5,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,151.9810035%35 W · 65 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Suns51c10,813$5,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,309.31,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Magic47c10,638$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00076746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd606…9e01backed Suns51c10,294$5,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,044.12520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-60.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd568…a35abacked Magic59c10,186$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0007758.4%45 W · 32 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Magic41c10,030$4,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,112.61,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Magic41c10,000$4,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,10054539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Magic43c10,000$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,30031445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc825…4530backed Magic22c9,657$2,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,108.664231%13 W · 29 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-37.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x67d6…b04bbacked Suns57c9,333$5,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,013.333268.8%22 W · 10 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+25.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x622e…07abbacked Magic42c9,302$3,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,90717356.1%97 W · 76 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Magic43c9,280$3,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,973.562652.2%327 W · 299 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cf6…31ffbacked Magic35c9,177$3,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,203.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8375…ba1dbacked Magic6c8,627$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002045%9 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Magic42c8,274$3,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,450.4137747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Suns54c8,000$4,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6801,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Magic37c7,489$2,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,769.013,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab2d…b1aabacked Suns71c7,212$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,111.329547.5%140 W · 155 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Magic43c7,175$3,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,098.0617646%81 W · 95 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb15…0f02backed Magic42c7,162$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00016640.4%67 W · 99 L-14.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Suns55c7,037$3,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,149.9646940.3%189 W · 280 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Suns53c7,011$3,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,271.3889444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Suns54c7,000$3,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,22058449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Suns55c6,831$3,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,043.4792753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Magic47c6,823$3,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,185.71,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Suns58c6,766$3,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,849.993,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Magic30c6,550$1,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,943.3224151.9%125 W · 116 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7972…594fbacked Magic62c6,521$4,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0644358.1%25 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Suns51c6,499$3,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,184.324744.1%109 W · 138 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Magic24c6,409$1,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,550.921,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Suns56c6,400$3,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,82089050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd0da…d49cbacked Suns53c6,000$3,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,819.991070%7 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick48cpaid+67.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e41…a1c1backed Magic42c5,952$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5006848.5%33 W · 35 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Suns51c5,885$3,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,856.1781529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Magic36c5,511$1,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,961.9248845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Magic43c5,509$2,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,368.7145348.1%218 W · 235 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc62c…2c44backed Magic45c5,423$2,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,440.3311044.5%49 W · 61 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8045…26c5backed Suns54c5,301$2,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,438.55250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21d8…1389backed Magic47c5,301$2,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,491.47850%4 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8190…3ae6backed Suns53c5,297$2,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,489.581172.7%8 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.27per pick46cpaid+58.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xed67…77c2backed Magic45c5,282$2,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,376.88250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb12d…f73cbacked Magic46c5,237$2,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,389.99655.2%53 W · 43 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x336f…3ae1backed Suns53c5,200$2,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,443.93966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+26.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x95c1…68b3backed Suns54c5,185$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,385.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02b6…fbbbbacked Magic42c5,110$2,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1463256.3%18 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Suns58c5,093$2,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,124.3362144%273 W · 348 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Suns53c5,004$2,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,353.413,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.