TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Suns: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Magicof Magic, Suns
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,082
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,065

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,082 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x40f7…1f5ebacked Suns35c1,200$425 inLost-$425.065844.8%26 W · 32 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8d3…2b34backed Magic72c837.25$600 inWon+$237.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-53.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Suns26c592.7$156 inLost-$156.0148956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x87cd…63a1backed Magic77c540.18$416 inWon+$124.242254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Magic65c345.88$226 inWon+$120.345,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03c7…22f2backed Suns58c136.76$80 inLost-$809552.6%50 W · 45 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Suns50c130$65 inLost-$6555846.8%261 W · 297 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9675…6bf3backed Suns39c128.95$50 inLost-$508944.9%40 W · 49 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6479…5e64backed Suns36c111.28$40 inLost-$4014745.6%67 W · 80 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Magic41c84.75$35 inWon+$502,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Suns36c83.33$30 inLost-$3022036.8%81 W · 139 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked Magic50c50$25 inWon+$2543246.1%199 W · 233 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67b1…63ecbacked Suns37c42.92$16 inLost-$169334.4%32 W · 61 L-11.4wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-32.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked Magic44c34.71$15 inWon+$19.4437755.2%208 W · 169 L+23.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+60.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d42…0b66backed Suns54c20.52$11 inLost-$115056%28 W · 22 L-5.3wins-0.11per pick67cpaid-17.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Suns51c20.41$10 inLost-$10.413,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Magic80c20.38$16 inWon+$4.081,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fe1…f730backed Magic77c13.64$11 inWon+$3.14250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.