NBA · resolved market
Spread: Suns (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f8ee63646fb81aa23ba786d9eda791e637a8f242696965239238c3fbe91ac06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Suns, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xada5…db70backed Magic | 51c | 3,899$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,899.31 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Suns | 49c | 3,024$1,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,481.68 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Suns | 51c | 2,711$1,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,370.22 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Suns | 53c | 2,484$1,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.61 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Suns | 49c | 2,198$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.97 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Magic | 48c | 2,184$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.72 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Suns | 48c | 2,100$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008 | 544 | 43%234 W · 310 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Magic | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Suns | 51c | 1,875$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.93 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Magic | 50c | 1,005$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.63 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Magic | 52c | 800$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Suns | 49c | 788.22$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.14 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Suns | 47c | 609.68$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.09 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…697abacked Suns | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 206 | 50%103 W · 103 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Suns | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…26c0backed Magic | 50c | 348.08$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.04 | 219 | 48.9%107 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Magic | 51c | 330.88$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.91 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Magic | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 271 | 44.3%120 W · 151 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…48bebacked Magic | 75c | 242.38$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Suns | 44c | 198.7$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.65 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Magic | 50c | 168.15$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.07 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea33…ae06backed Magic | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 51c | 140.02$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.63 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Magic | 32c | 136$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.59 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Magic | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5c…7b2bbacked Magic | 60c | 118.94$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.11 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Suns | 49c | 110$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Magic | 50c | 102.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd379…aa64backed Suns | 50c | 100.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Magic | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…eda7backed Magic | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…c744backed Magic | 51c | 79.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Magic | 40c | 73.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa885…84debacked Suns | 47c | 67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Magic | 41c | 61.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 106 | 37.7%40 W · 66 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Suns | 50c | 58.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Suns | 38c | 52.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Suns | 48c | 52.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Suns | 52c | 49.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Magic | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 273 | 59%161 W · 112 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Suns | 49c | 42.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 156 | 63.5%99 W · 57 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Magic | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Suns | 36c | 28.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Magic | 54c | 28.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…2e45backed Magic | 52c | 28.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7126…18cfbacked Magic | 43c | 27.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…cc63backed Suns | 43c | 26.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf6…b89abacked Suns | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86d9…b214backed Magic | 54c | 18.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Suns (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Suns (-1.5)Magic won
- Anthony Black: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Anthony Black: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Dillon Brooks: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Grayson Allen: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Grayson Allen: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Jalen Green: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jalen Suggs: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Magic vs. SunsSuns won
- Magic vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. Suns: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Magic vs. Suns: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Magic vs. Suns: O/U 217.5Over won
- Magic vs. Suns: O/U 218.5Over won
- Magic vs. Suns: O/U 219.5Over won
- Magic vs. Suns: O/U 220.5Over won
- Mark Williams: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Spread: Suns (-1.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-2.5)Suns won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 9.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.