Tennis · resolved market
Ningbo Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Zeynep Sonmez
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b1a3c6903b1eb5bf595d0f96370094bf7641a3e540ff9cdf87655d12f27fe9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tomljanovicof Tomljanovic, Sonmez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Sonmez | 31c | 1,759$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.84 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Tomljanovic | 78c | 1,143$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.17 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Sonmez | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57f3…7304backed Tomljanovic | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…0b32backed Sonmez | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Sonmez | 45c | 900$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Tomljanovic | 71c | 803.43$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.02 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Sonmez | 40c | 594.03$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.8 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Tomljanovic | 65c | 489.99$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.5 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Sonmez | 43c | 456.84$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.6 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Tomljanovic | 57c | 263.74$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.74 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7f…90c5backed Tomljanovic | 57c | 252.84$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.84 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -7.5wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked Sonmez | 21c | 245.17$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tomljanovic | 79c | 240.95$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Tomljanovic | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Sonmez | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Tomljanovic | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41cc…26eabacked Tomljanovic | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Sonmez | 20c | 142.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Sonmez | 45c | 111.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 496 | 32.3%160 W · 336 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Sonmez | 43c | 75.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Tomljanovic | 46c | 57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Sonmez | 44c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b32…8166backed Tomljanovic | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Tomljanovic | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Tomljanovic | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf19b…1613backed Sonmez | 68c | 33.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 176 | 50.6%89 W · 87 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.