TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Magic

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Magicof Heat, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,757,307
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,897,451

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,757,307 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,911 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb3dd…a7e0backed Magic49c317,257$155,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161,800.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Heat51c300,000$154,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153,999.9613248.5%64 W · 68 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb351…5fbfbacked Magic48c300,000$142,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157,249.873043.3%13 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xed72…b8b0backed Heat52c249,681$130,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130,0042245.5%10 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Heat48c230,000$111,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,169.2720253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x564f…1795backed Magic50c190,028$95,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94,114.053839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Magic48c168,156$80,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88,018.687144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Heat38c120,000$45,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,999.9938248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Magic49c100,068$49,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,680.431445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Heat49c96,850$47,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,187.881,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2487…fa80backed Heat50c90,000$45,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,199.9618045%81 W · 99 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Magic50c83,526$42,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,441.882,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Magic50c77,244$38,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,816.641,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Heat51c75,337$38,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,436.72,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Heat30c74,816$22,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,264.061,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18d1…dbcbbacked Heat49c74,686$36,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,5969641.7%40 W · 56 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Magic50c70,000$34,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,099.9566853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Heat53c67,787$35,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,927.1440350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Heat49c62,347$30,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,549.0927747.7%132 W · 145 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd538…cc31backed Magic48c54,854$26,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,524.0821450%107 W · 107 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d56…7486backed Heat53c54,854$29,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,072.6217861.2%109 W · 69 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f16…0246backed Heat51c51,389$26,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,32538649.5%191 W · 195 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87b6…4ababacked Magic40c48,316$19,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,785.35955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe74a…40eebacked Magic52c48,074$24,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,075.341947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+41.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Magic52c41,534$21,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,959.0737557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Heat30c39,247$11,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,832.381,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Magic52c34,846$18,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,711.5621944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Magic51c30,553$15,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,971.0617251.7%89 W · 83 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Heat49c30,000$14,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,80051350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Magic51c28,000$14,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,719.981,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Heat52c26,584$13,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,879.671,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb84…08a9backed Magic51c26,019$13,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,824.375139.2%20 W · 31 L-9.3wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-34.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Heat9c25,953$2,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,338.448046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed Heat34c24,727$8,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,418.8513435.8%48 W · 86 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Magic48c22,574$10,747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,826.8759653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Heat48c22,000$10,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,559.9225945.6%118 W · 141 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Magic48c21,943$10,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,387.314,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Heat51c21,847$11,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,092.1736741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Magic50c21,803$10,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,885.4813455.2%74 W · 60 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd36b…d4d4backed Heat51c21,573$11,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,002.353259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+16.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Heat27c21,000$5,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,704.9926637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Heat10c20,515$2,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,017.11,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff12…09f9backed Magic68c20,512$13,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,620.4719388.1%170 W · 23 L+48.6wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+46.2%equal weight75+0.22 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Heat48c20,481$9,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,895.5327424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Heat51c20,278$10,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,280.374,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc153…6c8bbacked Heat49c20,000$9,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,8701376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+35.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Heat29c20,000$5,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,863.271,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5da4…e203backed Heat48c20,000$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,599.95250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed Heat49c20,000$9,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,799.925350.9%27 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Magic69c19,482$13,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,127.723,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Magic53c18,868$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,867.9234062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Magic58c17,376$10,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,348.0959646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9615…60ddbacked Heat52c17,000$8,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,847.9914853.4%79 W · 69 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Magic48c15,931$7,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,284.1289050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Magic63c15,785$9,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,823.745,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca21…b07cbacked Magic65c15,718$10,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,546.5722458.9%132 W · 92 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Magic50c15,000$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,50017348.6%84 W · 89 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Magic46c14,889$6,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,971.6439349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d9…717bbacked Magic51c14,478$7,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,023.832142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-20.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed Heat27c13,921$3,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,799.019640.6%39 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Heat24c13,853$3,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,328.1981529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x22c6…cf2abacked Heat52c13,000$6,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,7601838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf2c…097cbacked Magic48c13,000$6,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,7603177.4%24 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Heat38c12,944$4,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,89717441.4%72 W · 102 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed Heat39c12,045$4,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,653.769336.6%34 W · 59 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Heat34c11,218$3,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,858.141,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Heat51c11,143$5,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,683.0222458.9%132 W · 92 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0280…a33ebacked Heat51c11,000$5,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,610714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.39per pick53cpaid-76.6%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Heat48c10,670$5,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,121.991,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Magic50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,00024831.9%79 W · 169 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Magic50c10,000$5,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,97035547.3%168 W · 187 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Magic50c10,000$4,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,05045348.1%218 W · 235 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4110…42a9backed Heat48c10,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,800714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-51.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c20…7d4fbacked Magic52c10,000$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,8002552%13 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b6f…2e89backed Heat32c10,000$3,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,239.962429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-56.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Magic67c9,900$6,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,2343,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Magic65c9,821$6,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,477.7744654.3%242 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Heat51c9,804$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00076746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Heat52c9,564$5,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,008.33,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Heat49c9,253$4,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,547.339,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97af…9bc6backed Heat52c8,997$4,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,678.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x65cd…1e0bbacked Heat62c8,804$5,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,467.123745.9%17 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Heat33c8,368$2,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,776.784,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x401a…9e59backed Magic48c8,297$3,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,314.18450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x360d…5e0fbacked Heat49c8,163$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0002454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Magic53c8,080$4,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,791.246342.5%197 W · 266 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5077…4e7cbacked Heat50c8,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0009733%32 W · 65 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-30.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Magic50c7,794$3,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,886.566250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ad…be8cbacked Magic37c7,561$2,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,788.672142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1252…dec2backed Heat43c6,800$2,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9364052.5%21 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Heat37c6,775$2,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,484.562,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed Heat48c6,729$3,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,222.0610235.3%36 W · 66 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe07f…c3bcbacked Heat53c6,300$3,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,339825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-63%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Heat48c6,250$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00041954.4%228 W · 191 L+1.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Heat45c6,246$2,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,806.491,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17cb…3ab8backed Heat48c6,123$2,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,939.067437.8%28 W · 46 L-9.6wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-39.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Magic58c6,069$3,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,534.8873649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Heat6c6,066$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.541,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x90ab…ded1backed Magic50c6,049$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,049.237745.5%35 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ee…5436backed Heat52c6,000$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,120837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.