NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Magic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92d983b8c82943ee030345ae0d75ef1a7b9caca4dc3cc428d2b0d28b4660fdeb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Heat, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,757,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,897,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,757,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,911 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3dd…a7e0backed Magic | 49c | 317,257$155,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161,800.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked Heat | 51c | 300,000$154,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153,999.96 | 132 | 48.5%64 W · 68 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb351…5fbfbacked Magic | 48c | 300,000$142,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157,249.87 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed72…b8b0backed Heat | 52c | 249,681$130,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130,004 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Heat | 48c | 230,000$111,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111,169.27 | 202 | 53.5%108 W · 94 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…1795backed Magic | 50c | 190,028$95,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94,114.05 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Magic | 48c | 168,156$80,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88,018.6 | 871 | 44.7%389 W · 482 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Heat | 38c | 120,000$45,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,999.99 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba41…5f4fbacked Magic | 49c | 100,068$49,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50,680.4 | 314 | 45.2%142 W · 172 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Heat | 49c | 96,850$47,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,187.88 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2487…fa80backed Heat | 50c | 90,000$45,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,199.96 | 180 | 45%81 W · 99 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Magic | 50c | 83,526$42,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,441.88 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Magic | 50c | 77,244$38,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,816.64 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Heat | 51c | 75,337$38,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,436.7 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Heat | 30c | 74,816$22,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,264.06 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18d1…dbcbbacked Heat | 49c | 74,686$36,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,596 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Magic | 50c | 70,000$34,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,099.95 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Heat | 53c | 67,787$35,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,927.14 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Heat | 49c | 62,347$30,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,549.09 | 277 | 47.7%132 W · 145 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd538…cc31backed Magic | 48c | 54,854$26,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,524.08 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d56…7486backed Heat | 53c | 54,854$29,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,072.62 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…0246backed Heat | 51c | 51,389$26,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,325 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87b6…4ababacked Magic | 40c | 48,316$19,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,785.35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74a…40eebacked Magic | 52c | 48,074$24,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,075.34 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Magic | 52c | 41,534$21,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,959.07 | 375 | 57.6%216 W · 159 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Heat | 30c | 39,247$11,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,832.38 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…bc51backed Magic | 52c | 34,846$18,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,711.56 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Magic | 51c | 30,553$15,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,971.06 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Heat | 49c | 30,000$14,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,800 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Magic | 51c | 28,000$14,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,719.98 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Heat | 52c | 26,584$13,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,879.67 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…08a9backed Magic | 51c | 26,019$13,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,824.37 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -9.3wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Heat | 9c | 25,953$2,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,338.4 | 480 | 46%221 W · 259 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd599…bf55backed Heat | 34c | 24,727$8,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,418.85 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Magic | 48c | 22,574$10,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,826.87 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Heat | 48c | 22,000$10,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,559.92 | 259 | 45.6%118 W · 141 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Magic | 48c | 21,943$10,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,387.31 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Heat | 51c | 21,847$11,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,092.17 | 367 | 41.4%152 W · 215 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c0…e618backed Magic | 50c | 21,803$10,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,885.48 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd36b…d4d4backed Heat | 51c | 21,573$11,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,002.35 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Heat | 27c | 21,000$5,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,704.99 | 266 | 37.2%99 W · 167 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Heat | 10c | 20,515$2,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,017.1 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff12…09f9backed Magic | 68c | 20,512$13,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,620.47 | 193 | 88.1%170 W · 23 L | +48.6wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 75+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x27cb…169ebacked Heat | 48c | 20,481$9,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,895.53 | 274 | 24.5%67 W · 207 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Heat | 51c | 20,278$10,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,280.37 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc153…6c8bbacked Heat | 49c | 20,000$9,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,870 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Heat | 29c | 20,000$5,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,863.27 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5da4…e203backed Heat | 48c | 20,000$9,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,599.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…ad45backed Heat | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,799.92 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Magic | 69c | 19,482$13,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,127.72 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…4033backed Magic | 53c | 18,868$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,867.92 | 340 | 62.1%211 W · 129 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Magic | 58c | 17,376$10,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,348.09 | 596 | 46.1%275 W · 321 L | -16.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9615…60ddbacked Heat | 52c | 17,000$8,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,847.99 | 148 | 53.4%79 W · 69 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Magic | 48c | 15,931$7,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,284.12 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Magic | 63c | 15,785$9,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,823.74 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca21…b07cbacked Magic | 65c | 15,718$10,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,546.57 | 224 | 58.9%132 W · 92 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Magic | 50c | 15,000$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,500 | 173 | 48.6%84 W · 89 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ed…8db7backed Magic | 46c | 14,889$6,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,971.64 | 393 | 49.1%193 W · 200 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d9…717bbacked Magic | 51c | 14,478$7,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,023.83 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…b560backed Heat | 27c | 13,921$3,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,799.01 | 96 | 40.6%39 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Heat | 24c | 13,853$3,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,328.19 | 815 | 29.4%240 W · 575 L | -37.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22c6…cf2abacked Heat | 52c | 13,000$6,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,760 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2c…097cbacked Magic | 48c | 13,000$6,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,760 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…6793backed Heat | 38c | 12,944$4,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,897 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d58…9a15backed Heat | 39c | 12,045$4,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,653.76 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…d096backed Heat | 34c | 11,218$3,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,858.14 | 1,003 | 34.7%348 W · 655 L | -44.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38c2…d3a7backed Heat | 51c | 11,143$5,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,683.02 | 224 | 58.9%132 W · 92 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0280…a33ebacked Heat | 51c | 11,000$5,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,610 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 53cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Heat | 48c | 10,670$5,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,121.99 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ec…e8f1backed Magic | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 248 | 31.9%79 W · 169 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62fb…4d60backed Magic | 50c | 10,000$5,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,970 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Magic | 50c | 10,000$4,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,050 | 453 | 48.1%218 W · 235 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4110…42a9backed Heat | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c20…7d4fbacked Magic | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,800 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…2e89backed Heat | 32c | 10,000$3,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,239.96 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Magic | 67c | 9,900$6,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,234 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Magic | 65c | 9,821$6,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,477.77 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Heat | 51c | 9,804$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Heat | 52c | 9,564$5,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,008.3 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 49c | 9,253$4,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,547.33 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97af…9bc6backed Heat | 52c | 8,997$4,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,678.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65cd…1e0bbacked Heat | 62c | 8,804$5,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,467.12 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Heat | 33c | 8,368$2,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,776.78 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401a…9e59backed Magic | 48c | 8,297$3,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,314.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x360d…5e0fbacked Heat | 49c | 8,163$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Magic | 53c | 8,080$4,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,791.2 | 463 | 42.5%197 W · 266 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5077…4e7cbacked Heat | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Magic | 50c | 7,794$3,907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,886.5 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ad…be8cbacked Magic | 37c | 7,561$2,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,788.67 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1252…dec2backed Heat | 43c | 6,800$2,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,936 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Heat | 37c | 6,775$2,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,484.56 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…b245backed Heat | 48c | 6,729$3,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,222.06 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07f…c3bcbacked Heat | 53c | 6,300$3,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,339 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked Heat | 48c | 6,250$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 419 | 54.4%228 W · 191 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Heat | 45c | 6,246$2,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,806.49 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17cb…3ab8backed Heat | 48c | 6,123$2,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,939.06 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -9.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Magic | 58c | 6,069$3,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,534.88 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Heat | 6c | 6,066$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.54 | 1,190 | 32%381 W · 809 L | -58.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ab…ded1backed Magic | 50c | 6,049$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,049.23 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ee…5436backed Heat | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,120 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Magicthis page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-0.5)Heat won
- 1H Spread: Magic (-1.5)Heat won
- Heat vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Heat vs. Magic: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Heat vs. Magic: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Heat vs. Magic: 1H O/U 122.5Under won
- Heat vs. Magic: O/U 233.5Under won
- Heat vs. Magic: O/U 234.5Under won
- Heat vs. Magic: O/U 235.5Under won
- Heat vs. Magic: O/U 236.5Under won
- Heat vs. Magic: O/U 237.5Under won
- Heat vs. Magic: O/U 238.5Under won
- Heat vs. Magic: O/U 239.5Under won
- Heat vs. Magic: O/U 240.5Under won
- Heat vs. Magic: O/U 241.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-1.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-1.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-2.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.