TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Magic: 1H O/U 120.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,414
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,298

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,414 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8180…208bbacked Under55c902.17$500 inWon+$402.179652.1%50 W · 46 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Over45c631.3$283 inLost-$282.771,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Over55c360.66$200 inLost-$20035749.6%177 W · 180 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under44c315.46$140 inWon+$175.131,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Over48c197$95 inLost-$94.5658951.3%302 W · 287 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce67…8558backed Over47c192$90 inLost-$90.2420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaaf0…f708backed Under53c186$99 inWon+$87.42475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+36.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4aff…c91bbacked Under53c168$89 inWon+$78.969050%45 W · 45 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a82…b6bdbacked Over48c114.38$55 inLost-$558251.2%42 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6132…7665backed Under53c102$54 inWon+$47.943658.3%21 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x28a2…91a4backed Under46c102$47 inWon+$55.088852.3%46 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over44c100$44 inLost-$444,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x521c…64d2backed Over47c81$38 inLost-$38.072437.5%9 W · 15 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb736…1946backed Over47c79$37 inLost-$37.136048.3%29 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd289…98b5backed Over54c79$43 inLost-$42.663171%22 W · 9 L+6.0wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+35.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x68e0…a3a6backed Under46c74$34 inWon+$39.965650%28 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Under49c54$26 inWon+$27.548355.4%46 W · 37 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9431…6270backed Over47c50$24 inLost-$23.54052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc789…3907backed Over51c47$24 inLost-$23.973342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec54…a03dbacked Under50c40.2$20 inWon+$20.210957.8%63 W · 46 L+0.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d49…c438backed Over47c33$16 inLost-$15.512832.1%9 W · 19 L-6.0wins-0.22per pick54cpaid-42.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x68cc…24adbacked Over54c29$16 inLost-$15.663339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-23.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1313…866abacked Over54c28$15 inLost-$15.124652.2%24 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50fc…ba9abacked Under53c24$13 inWon+$11.284652.2%24 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30ee…5d12backed Over54c23$12 inLost-$12.423043.3%13 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Over48c22.62$11 inLost-$10.8618053.3%96 W · 84 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.