NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe05910f6ed83e53dcbb6219910939490d6b198a0d34f13bec5a223a3257ebcbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Magic, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,318
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,318 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 57c | 9,032$5,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,112.29 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…d6aabacked Magic | 44c | 5,936$2,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,324.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265c…7843backed Magic | 44c | 5,227$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,927.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +54%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Magic | 59c | 2,551$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,052.91 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Heat | 60c | 2,480$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -14.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdec6…1d8ebacked Heat | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc29a…8776backed Magic | 44c | 1,900$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81c2…5ca2backed Magic | 44c | 1,900$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…da08backed Magic | 43c | 1,900$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c5…5c0dbacked Heat | 57c | 1,900$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b8…e3dabacked Magic | 44c | 1,900$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0b…e970backed Heat | 56c | 1,900$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb9…2396backed Heat | 56c | 1,900$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…c39bbacked Heat | 56c | 1,900$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Heat | 42c | 1,074$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.42 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Magic | 39c | 856.53$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.48 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Magic | 47c | 500$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Magic | 42c | 480.03$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.42 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Heat | 40c | 379.52$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.81 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Heat | 53c | 332.61$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.61 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…1c8fbacked Magic | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Heat | 51c | 306.12$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.12 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Magic | 46c | 206.52$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.52 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Heat | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Magic | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Heat | 46c | 168.28$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.41 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Magic | 40c | 159.78$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.87 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…e6c3backed Heat | 59c | 138.98$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Heat | 59c | 102.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Magic | 45c | 90.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.57 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b7…103cbacked Heat | 51c | 84.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Heat | 56c | 83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f6…8132backed Heat | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Heat | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…2332backed Heat | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x075a…8d34backed Heat | 57c | 48.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…a3d3backed Magic | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…3017backed Magic | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Heat | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Heat | 52c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Magic | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Heat | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Magic | 41c | 26.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fec…8dc3backed Magic | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Magic | 45c | 22.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…4972backed Heat | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 163 | 39.3%64 W · 99 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Heat | 56c | 19.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Heat | 59c | 19.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Heat | 56c | 19.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-0.5)Heat won
- 1H Spread: Magic (-1.5)Heat won
- Heat vs. MagicMagic won
- Heat vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Heat vs. Magic: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Heat vs. Magic: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Heat vs. Magic: 1H O/U 122.5Under won
- Heat vs. Magic: O/U 233.5Under won
- Heat vs. Magic: O/U 234.5Under won
- Heat vs. Magic: O/U 235.5Under won
- Heat vs. Magic: O/U 236.5Under won
- Heat vs. Magic: O/U 237.5Under won
- Heat vs. Magic: O/U 238.5Under won
- Heat vs. Magic: O/U 239.5Under won
- Heat vs. Magic: O/U 240.5Under won
- Heat vs. Magic: O/U 241.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-1.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-1.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.