NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Magic: O/U 233.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fd3e8c4e78bd8ea3297947daecc8717a00fc875f62f605e9bd8e410b6fa6d78

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 9, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $46,313
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $46,438

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,313 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	47c	10,292$4,842 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,449.31	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	52c	8,904$4,661 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,660.52	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked Under	49c	5,558$2,723 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,834.66	57	50.9%29 W · 28 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Over	51c	3,728$1,919 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,918.73	589	51.3%302 W · 287 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over	52c	3,568$1,872 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,872.07	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Under	48c	3,333$1,600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,733.16	288	50.3%145 W · 143 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Over	53c	2,968$1,573 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,572.72	220	53.6%118 W · 102 L	+5.6wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Under	47c	2,300$1,077 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,222.54	857	42.6%365 W · 492 L	-15.6wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Over	53c	2,000$1,060 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,060	240	53.8%129 W · 111 L	+12.5wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+11%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b1d…1e31backed Under	46c	2,000$920 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,080	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e6…265bbacked Over	54c	2,000$1,080 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,080	18	50%9 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7cd…0888backed Under	49c	1,700$833 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$867	177	44.1%78 W · 99 L	-7.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Under	46c	1,356$628 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$728.44	2,045	48.4%990 W · 1,055 L	-30.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Over	52c	1,248$649 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$648.92	1,212	48.3%586 W · 626 L	-20.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	48c	847.66$404 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$443.98	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Over	48c	840$402 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$402	250	39.6%99 W · 151 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Under	46c	751$345 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$405.54	446	48%214 W · 232 L	-12.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Under	49c	741.87$364 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$377.75	950	49.4%469 W · 481 L	+10.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d4b…a250backed Under	48c	599.97$288 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$311.98	344	47.4%163 W · 181 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Under	48c	500$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$260	1,197	47.5%569 W · 628 L	-32.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	52c	446.57$232 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$214.3	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Under	71c	399$285 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.73	2,169	40.8%885 W · 1,284 L	-8.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b23…e20fbacked Over	52c	385$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.2	499	38.9%194 W · 305 L	-23.4wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Over	52c	372.8$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.58	180	53.3%96 W · 84 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b4…e861backed Over	49c	315.08$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.39	70	47.1%33 W · 37 L	-5.9wins	-0.08per pick	56cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7dd4…ebc4backed Over	55c	284$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.2	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	-7.4wins	-0.14per pick	38cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0x96ec…fcc4backed Over	50c	250$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	272	47.8%130 W · 142 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	27c	207.67$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.86	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	50c	206.66$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.52	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	53c	200$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb652…2db4backed Over	52c	193.4$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.57	376	27.9%105 W · 271 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9202…8ef9backed Over	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	136	46.3%63 W · 73 L	-10.1wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8a3…a380backed Under	46c	173$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.42	86	44.2%38 W · 48 L	-4.1wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30ff…f283backed Over	55c	161.82$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.55per pick	55cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b46…121dbacked Under	49c	138.78$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.78	315	51.7%163 W · 152 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Under	49c	125$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.75	500	47.2%236 W · 264 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under	48c	113$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.83	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a82…b6bdbacked Over	53c	103.92$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	82	51.2%42 W · 40 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58b7…103cbacked Over	51c	100.47$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.76	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacac…bd06backed Over	54c	87$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.98	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	-3.9wins	-0.12per pick	51cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3eb…c444backed Under	49c	85.67$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.69	6	50%3 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0e9…f67fbacked Under	49c	81.63$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.63	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc57f…5c69backed Over	55c	80$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.55per pick	55cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x515e…cf91backed Over	53c	79.25$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4692…795ebacked Under	48c	79.17$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.17	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.17per pick	50cpaid	+34.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3d8…c8c0backed Under	45c	77$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.35	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Under	47c	75.91$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.23	762	47.1%359 W · 403 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef2b…0111backed Over	52c	75.67$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.35	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Over	53c	75.47$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	364	50.8%185 W · 179 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	54c	75$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.53	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf3e…390fbacked Over	54c	67$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.18	47	55.3%26 W · 21 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c0…07d8backed Under	46c	66$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.64	45	53.3%24 W · 21 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Under	48c	50$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26	388	45.6%177 W · 211 L	-4.8wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5425…8b3abacked Over	55c	45.45$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	291	56.4%164 W · 127 L	+13.8wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+11%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4be6…0b8dbacked Under	76c	45$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.8	36	58.3%21 W · 15 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	61cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	54c	41.94$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.65	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x334f…0d32backed Over	51c	41.94$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.39	136	52.2%71 W · 65 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb630…00edbacked Under	49c	40.71$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.76	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+2.4wins	+0.26per pick	52cpaid	+53.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb658…af47backed Over	52c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.27per pick	52cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc2b8…e54fbacked Over	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3f…25debacked Over	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-3.5wins	-0.39per pick	50cpaid	-79%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over	38c	38.2$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.56	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf340…6224backed Over	54c	37$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.98	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-4.3wins	-0.24per pick	52cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under	48c	33$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.16	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under	45c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.5	539	51.6%278 W · 261 L	+20.3wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2579…d6cbbacked Over	55c	30$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+1.7wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4f7…1cddbacked Over	52c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	67	41.8%28 W · 39 L	-3.9wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-10%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cdb…7a7abacked Over	52c	29$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.08	58	44.8%26 W · 32 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed Under	49c	27.1$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.82	302	44%133 W · 169 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10f7…26f0backed Under	46c	27$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.58	74	51.4%38 W · 36 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0068…d7b0backed Over	55c	25$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.75	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	-6.0wins	-0.19per pick	53cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0xe7d4…c5cdbacked Over	55c	22$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.1	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-3.0wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Heat vs. Magic: O/U 233.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event