TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Magic: O/U 240.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,032
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,490

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,032 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37de…f512backed Over4c299.9$13 inLost-$13.21,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over46c291.63$134 inLost-$1344,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Over36c282.96$101 inLost-$100.841,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7203…22d6backed Under64c246.83$158 inWon+$89.019843.9%43 W · 55 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2487…3234backed Over35c155$54 inLost-$54.25540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-34.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf6c…2c7fbacked Under65c150$98 inWon+$52.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+34.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1ce…5cfdbacked Over31c133$41 inLost-$41.23333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ba1…b0b6backed Under65c126.33$82 inWon+$44.784946.9%23 W · 26 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dde…1ad0backed Under69c122$84 inWon+$37.822100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+66.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb100…dce6backed Under63c114$72 inWon+$42.183056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64c6…244cbacked Under63c100$63 inWon+$379445.7%43 W · 51 L-11.3wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-21.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over37c100$37 inLost-$376,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Under64c93.12$59 inWon+$33.7561253.1%325 W · 287 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over36c86.01$31 inLost-$30.84,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc687…e856backed Under66c76.14$50 inWon+$26.147152.1%37 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over26c75.31$20 inLost-$19.718,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67de…1d9bbacked Over37c73$27 inLost-$27.012065%13 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x27ed…57ebbacked Under62c51$32 inWon+$19.387361.6%45 W · 28 L+9.6wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+27.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Over36c50.58$18 inLost-$18.211,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Over39c50.58$19 inLost-$19.4825642.6%109 W · 147 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under61c47.56$29 inWon+$18.321,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd643…9811backed Under70c42.3$30 inWon+$12.699248.9%45 W · 47 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over36c33.15$12 inLost-$11.822,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…de52backed Over38c31$12 inLost-$11.782548%12 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c80…9564backed Under65c31$20 inWon+$1112159.5%72 W · 49 L-0.5wins0.00per pick60cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9061…9510backed Under60c17$10 inWon+$6.87162%44 W · 27 L+8.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+22%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.