NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74132296573bbab27941d2c940cae07bd9febb656cfafdbec7f450ebe3a12a80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Magic, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Magic | 53c | 10,373$5,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,922.19 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Heat | 50c | 5,674$2,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,863.54 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Heat | 45c | 3,716$1,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,672.01 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Magic | 42c | 2,607$1,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,509.19 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Heat | 55c | 1,428$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.73 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Magic | 31c | 1,073$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.17 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc4…a439backed Heat | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Heat | 69c | 986.7$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.19 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Heat | 54c | 722.45$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.32 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Heat | 65c | 500.19$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.12 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb116…940abacked Heat | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…4972backed Magic | 31c | 493.5$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.55 | 163 | 39.3%64 W · 99 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Heat | 70c | 474.84$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.25 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a6…6d23backed Magic | 35c | 410.19$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.62 | 200 | 47.5%95 W · 105 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Magic | 45c | 399.99$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4209…7582backed Heat | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 332 | 35.5%118 W · 214 L | -27.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…85a1backed Heat | 64c | 299.98$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.99 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +20.0wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Magic | 39c | 251.01$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.34 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed Magic | 38c | 229.07$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.87 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46df…b057backed Heat | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 211 | 64.5%136 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x903f…3a36backed Magic | 35c | 158$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.7 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 45cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Magic | 35c | 156.31$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.6 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…0476backed Heat | 65c | 154.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Magic | 52c | 152.2$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.36 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fa…f25ebacked Magic | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ce…14b4backed Heat | 68c | 147.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b36…ff96backed Heat | 65c | 143$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a60…e1debacked Magic | 33c | 137$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x034d…10d2backed Heat | 67c | 128$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1147…da78backed Heat | 63c | 117.01$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.66 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Magic | 40c | 115.38$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.36 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc483…8ac8backed Magic | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Magic | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Heat | 51c | 98.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Magic | 23c | 96.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.17 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…792cbacked Heat | 65c | 87$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Heat | 66c | 73.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6347…cdd5backed Heat | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Heat | 68c | 68.01$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…b3e8backed Magic | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46e5…4c5ebacked Magic | 40c | 54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0b4ebacked Heat | 68c | 48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Magic | 33c | 38.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Heat | 66c | 37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Magic | 36c | 35.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a32…0188backed Heat | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a4…f479backed Heat | 51c | 30.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260a…dbf6backed Heat | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Heat | 69c | 29.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Heat | 69c | 27.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…921dbacked Heat | 66c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcaba…ba7cbacked Heat | 65c | 17.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -6.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5acc…89e0backed Heat | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Heat | 63c | 15.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 327 | 43.4%142 W · 185 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-0.5)Heat won
- 1H Spread: Magic (-1.5)Heat won
- Heat vs. MagicMagic won
- Heat vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Heat vs. Magic: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Heat vs. Magic: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Heat vs. Magic: 1H O/U 122.5Under won
- Heat vs. Magic: O/U 233.5Under won
- Heat vs. Magic: O/U 234.5Under won
- Heat vs. Magic: O/U 235.5Under won
- Heat vs. Magic: O/U 236.5Under won
- Heat vs. Magic: O/U 237.5Under won
- Heat vs. Magic: O/U 238.5Under won
- Heat vs. Magic: O/U 239.5Under won
- Heat vs. Magic: O/U 240.5Under won
- Heat vs. Magic: O/U 241.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-1.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-1.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-2.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.