NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Magic: 1H Moneyline

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8f2896590c79aca14970333724a84d2237495c27dfb38e98aed18be6b39d8a7

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Heatof Heat, Magic
Resolved: Dec 9, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $15,225
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $15,240

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,225 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x95b8…47c9backed Heat	52c	9,004$4,651 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,353.17	131	53.4%70 W · 61 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2195…16f9backed Magic	48c	3,125$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	51	45.1%23 W · 28 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84cb…28adbacked Heat	70c	2,845$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$845.36	168	46.4%78 W · 90 L	-13.2wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Magic	49c	1,500$735 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$735	256	42.6%109 W · 147 L	-9.9wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Magic	43c	1,408$603 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$603.26	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Magic	43c	1,055$449 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$449.12	446	54.3%242 W · 204 L	+21.5wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Magic	49c	1,000$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490	220	53.6%118 W · 102 L	+5.6wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Magic	49c	960$466 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$465.6	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Magic	16c	835.86$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.6	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb589…33d4backed Magic	24c	666$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.84	353	26.6%94 W · 259 L	+21.9wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+31%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Magic	53c	566.32$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	271	61.3%166 W · 105 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xefb9…e74fbacked Magic	26c	500$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.5	140	46.4%65 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Magic	49c	250$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.5	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Heat	69c	249.68$171 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.26	635	55.6%353 W · 282 L	+9.5wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5834…f0cbbacked Magic	54c	200.56$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	50	62%31 W · 19 L	+3.1wins	+0.06per pick	56cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x98ff…4303backed Magic	53c	187.63$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	10	40%4 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Heat	46c	137.91$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.47	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa5f…3de3backed Magic	50c	127$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.5	72	47.2%34 W · 38 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc483…8ac8backed Magic	40c	100$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	26	65.4%17 W · 9 L	+2.9wins	+0.11per pick	54cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc54f…dce8backed Magic	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	634	27.3%173 W · 461 L	-19.7wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a05…0329backed Magic	42c	99.96$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.98	64	34.4%22 W · 42 L	-5.4wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Magic	47c	55$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bd1…0100backed Heat	50c	55$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.5	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65ea…223fbacked Magic	49c	52$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.48	84	50%42 W · 42 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64a3…cc70backed Magic	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	54	55.6%30 W · 24 L	+2.7wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x00df…701bbacked Heat	44c	44.94$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.17	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	-4.6wins	-0.16per pick	23cpaid	-80.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x60f0…1a38backed Magic	56c	44.94$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.17	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…14d9backed Heat	51c	40.65$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.07	139	46.8%65 W · 74 L	+11.6wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc376…a8e7backed Heat	50c	40.3$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.3	317	48.9%155 W · 162 L	-12.1wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Magic	49c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	339	49.9%169 W · 170 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cce…ebfebacked Heat	50c	31$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.5	34	52.9%18 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2877…dc5bbacked Heat	50c	29$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.5	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	-4.4wins	-0.13per pick	51cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4c2f…3794backed Magic	50c	28$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a7c…1214backed Heat	50c	26$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x49ec…c4e5backed Magic	50c	25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	28	60.7%17 W · 11 L	+2.5wins	+0.09per pick	52cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x224a…67b1backed Heat	50c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	39	56.4%22 W · 17 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Heat vs. Magic: 1H Moneyline

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event