TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Magic: 1H O/U 122.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,499
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,692

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,499 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb116…940abacked Under55c200$110 inWon+$9012655.6%70 W · 56 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Over45c200$90 inLost-$9025642.6%109 W · 147 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over43c173.7$75 inLost-$74.983,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2487…3234backed Over41c162$66 inLost-$66.42540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-34.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5df0…db09backed Over41c161$66 inLost-$66.0130%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef3c…7762backed Under59c156$92 inWon+$63.96540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-27.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eca…8d5ebacked Under59c155$91 inWon+$63.55757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Under56c148$83 inWon+$65.128355.4%46 W · 37 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x64c6…244cbacked Under57c100.4$57 inWon+$43.119445.7%43 W · 51 L-11.3wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-21.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1488…0672backed Under56c98$55 inWon+$43.125058%29 W · 21 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e8c…c206backed Under53c94.34$50 inWon+$44.346934.8%24 W · 45 L-0.3wins0.00per pick35cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over47c94.34$44 inLost-$44.344,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa98d…3560backed Under56c89.29$50 inWon+$39.296258.1%36 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid+1.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x806c…3381backed Over44c89$39 inLost-$39.161741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-25.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f56…f93cbacked Over49c81.63$40 inLost-$404647.8%22 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62e6…f251backed Over44c56$25 inLost-$24.643953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb736…1946backed Over44c49$22 inLost-$21.566048.3%29 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under51c46.68$24 inWon+$22.875,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4dc…d394backed Under54c32$17 inWon+$14.726952.2%36 W · 33 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd4…9cebbacked Over44c26$11 inLost-$11.442846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.