TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Magic (-0.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Heatof Magic, Heat
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,117
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,117

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,117 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Heat48c576.92$277 inWon+$3001,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Magic52c576.92$300 inLost-$30035749.6%177 W · 180 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa024…4929backed Heat51c136$69 inWon+$66.646058.3%35 W · 25 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x363a…b79ebacked Heat51c128$65 inWon+$62.724429.5%13 W · 31 L-8.6wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-40.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x1393…8392backed Heat51c81$41 inWon+$39.699048.9%44 W · 46 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf572…065abacked Heat51c65$33 inWon+$31.855750.9%29 W · 28 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89ad…5e22backed Heat50c65$33 inWon+$32.54949%24 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d2d…ffcebacked Magic49c62$30 inLost-$30.382065%13 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+28.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc789…3907backed Magic49c48$24 inLost-$23.523342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf33d…1969backed Magic49c43$21 inLost-$21.074654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+17.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bc9…801ebacked Magic49c33$16 inLost-$16.172450%12 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe166…edcebacked Magic49c30$15 inLost-$14.71741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf71c…488bbacked Magic49c29$14 inLost-$14.212035%7 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-32.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4cdb…ae41backed Magic49c29$14 inLost-$14.212142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa521…4599backed Heat52c29$15 inWon+$13.927557.3%43 W · 32 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7399…fe96backed Magic50c28$14 inLost-$142433.3%8 W · 16 L-4.7wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-35.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x063c…d642backed Magic49c24$12 inLost-$11.763237.5%12 W · 20 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-24.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb1c1…090dbacked Magic49c24$12 inLost-$11.762050%10 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9431…6270backed Magic49c23$11 inLost-$11.274052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x470e…07c0backed Heat51c21$11 inWon+$10.297353.4%39 W · 34 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x152c…3b50backed Magic49c21$10 inLost-$10.292962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.