NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Magic: O/U 239.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x791a3e8e51d9c7357fd962d0cc3dd623db31031ca5c7a12e30c2882e7e0b563c

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 9, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $13,326
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $15,115

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,326 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1467…4372backed Under	62c	2,408$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$908.06	97	43.3%42 W · 55 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-12%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Over	40c	2,075$827 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$826.97	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c35…5850backed Over	41c	1,800$738 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$738	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-2.2wins	-0.13per pick	48cpaid	-24%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1869…30c8backed Under	59c	1,800$1,062 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$738	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+1.8wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf5d…7253backed Over	40c	1,500$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	112	42.9%48 W · 64 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	37c	1,271$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$470.21	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee2f…7677backed Under	60c	830.21$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$330.21	29	69%20 W · 9 L	+4.2wins	+0.14per pick	55cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	48c	638.38$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.42	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	55c	632$348 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$283.85	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcc4…a439backed Under	55c	500$275 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$225	195	47.2%92 W · 103 L	-9.7wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Under	56c	449.7$252 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$197.87	910	50.9%463 W · 447 L	+11.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2de8…1121backed Under	60c	416.67$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$166.67	909	57.6%524 W · 385 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x44bc…c53ebacked Over	40c	334.23$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.69	191	49.7%95 W · 96 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Over	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1,390	26%361 W · 1,029 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1aba…0831backed Under	66c	290$191 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.6	185	58.4%108 W · 77 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Over	40c	250$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf2…06c2backed Under	66c	210$139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.4	150	51.3%77 W · 73 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Under	60c	199$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.6	446	48%214 W · 232 L	-12.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59a6…edc4backed Over	36c	170$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.2	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb6…98e2backed Over	36c	167$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2a5…c452backed Over	36c	165$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.4	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	51cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x047c…69b6backed Over	36c	159$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.24	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb184…0465backed Over	36c	157$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.52	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c12…10f6backed Under	64c	156$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.16	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2994…92d2backed Under	64c	156$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.16	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	59cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaec…ec97backed Under	64c	156$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.16	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8a3…a380backed Under	60c	154$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.6	86	44.2%38 W · 48 L	-4.1wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf464…a89bbacked Over	36c	154$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.44	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e28…9da1backed Over	36c	153$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.08	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d29…ea6fbacked Over	36c	153$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.08	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.6wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa2b5…b5f8backed Under	64c	151$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.36	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe29a…a44fbacked Under	64c	148$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.28	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.36per pick	64cpaid	+56.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xedfa…58d6backed Under	64c	146$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.56	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c18…87b7backed Under	64c	146$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.56	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	57cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8da9…f597backed Under	64c	145$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.2	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.12per pick	54cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cc7…908dbacked Under	60c	138.95$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.58	166	50%83 W · 83 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over	38c	122.6$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.13	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x983a…ac6bbacked Over	46c	113$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.73	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	-2.0wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over	38c	109.15$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.32	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc54f…dce8backed Over	21c	95.57$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.66	634	27.3%173 W · 461 L	-19.7wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Under	60c	92$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.93	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33da…f818backed Under	61c	86.18$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.98	63	58.7%37 W · 26 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over	42c	75$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.5	807	44.1%356 W · 451 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd164…f17bbacked Under	61c	73.77$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.77	51	56.9%29 W · 22 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	60cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd595…7893backed Over	40c	73$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.2	39	64.1%25 W · 14 L	+5.1wins	+0.13per pick	51cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over	20c	70$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.2	1,226	37.4%458 W · 768 L	+7.6wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1313…866abacked Over	40c	66$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.4	46	52.2%24 W · 22 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd854…924fbacked Under	60c	63$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.2	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-3.3wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Under	53c	62.15$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.37	526	43%226 W · 300 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4dc…d394backed Under	60c	59$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.6	69	52.2%36 W · 33 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4e6…224cbacked Under	59c	50.88$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.88	88	52.3%46 W · 42 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebac…be55backed Under	74c	50$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13	121	53.7%65 W · 56 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Over	38c	49.94$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.98	473	49%232 W · 241 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7aed…38cbbacked Under	59c	46$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.73	106	52.8%56 W · 50 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under	59c	45.01$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.34	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Over	40c	36$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	46	43.5%20 W · 26 L	-3.9wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Over	39c	34.59$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.39	1,132	17%192 W · 940 L	+2.5wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under	62c	33.63$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.78	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Over	55c	25$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.75	500	47.2%236 W · 264 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x29bd…80c9backed Under	58c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.4	186	49.5%92 W · 94 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Heat vs. Magic: O/U 239.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event