TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Magic: O/U 241.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,391
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,781

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,391 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe405…bf91backed Under65c21,015$13,589 inWon+$7,425.7548448.8%236 W · 248 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Over35c15,293$5,353 inLost-$5,352.6125845%116 W · 142 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Over29c2,396$696 inLost-$695.831,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over34c1,793$601 inLost-$601.328,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Over35c1,500$525 inLost-$52525642.6%109 W · 147 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1033…d851backed Under72c1,396$1,000 inWon+$395.8327443.1%118 W · 156 L-0.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over35c767$268 inLost-$268.456,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aba…0831backed Under70c719.15$503 inWon+$215.7518558.4%108 W · 77 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65cd…1e0bbacked Over42c688.86$289 inLost-$289.323745.9%17 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over35c400$140 inLost-$1401,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x44bc…c53ebacked Over37c319.89$118 inLost-$118.3619149.7%95 W · 96 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91f7…d613backed Under70c290$203 inWon+$878860.2%53 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over40c257.69$102 inLost-$101.993,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Over34c203.51$69 inLost-$68.8352643%226 W · 300 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x40d9…a4d1backed Over33c143$47 inLost-$47.19333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-46.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7ce…14b4backed Under72c138.89$100 inWon+$38.8912157%69 W · 52 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf63…cf95backed Under67c135$90 inWon+$44.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc54f…dce8backed Over42c100$42 inLost-$4263427.3%173 W · 461 L-19.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over28c100$28 inLost-$2835739.8%142 W · 215 L-25.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0564…82fdbacked Under70c71.84$50 inWon+$21.841752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Over31c65.03$20 inLost-$20.021,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over28c38.89$11 inLost-$10.8984342.9%362 W · 481 L-39.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf8b…b796backed Under69c28.99$20 inWon+$8.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6347…cdd5backed Under73c27.4$20 inWon+$7.41136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.24per pick60cpaid-45.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.