NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x341769ca581b280553d915db995f79eb328e0eb1d41b272dc80480fa6a8684fa

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Magicof Magic, Heat
Resolved: Dec 9, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $398,608
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $402,213

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $398,608 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9165…5b98backed Magic	51c	221,982$112,827 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109,154.63	252	48.4%122 W · 130 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Heat	50c	114,553$57,267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57,266.64	1,046	51.1%534 W · 512 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Heat	49c	80,000$39,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39,200	596	53.4%318 W · 278 L	+4.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Magic	49c	60,889$29,886 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31,003.11	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Heat	50c	22,044$11,022 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,021.75	1,212	48.3%586 W · 626 L	-20.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Heat	49c	15,000$7,350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,350	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Heat	48c	10,047$4,823 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,822.8	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Heat	50c	10,009$4,962 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,962.28	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Heat	51c	9,116$4,628 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,627.96	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Magic	50c	6,995$3,498 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,497.5	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Heat	48c	6,299$3,024 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,023.53	181	51.9%94 W · 87 L	+7.6wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3df8…a696backed Heat	50c	6,000$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.09per pick	54cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Heat	52c	5,892$3,064 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,063.99	1,024	50.8%520 W · 504 L	+18.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Magic	51c	5,500$2,805 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,695	477	48.8%233 W · 244 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Heat	49c	5,000$2,450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,450	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Heat	48c	4,000$1,920 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,920	446	54.3%242 W · 204 L	+21.5wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x535b…25a9backed Magic	52c	3,856$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,856.23	125	55.2%69 W · 56 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Magic	51c	3,804$1,959 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,845.38	219	44.7%98 W · 121 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Heat	51c	3,789$1,921 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,920.59	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Heat	54c	3,704$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa80…053ebacked Heat	57c	3,684$2,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,100	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.26per pick	51cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2195…16f9backed Heat	48c	3,125$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	51	45.1%23 W · 28 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Magic	47c	3,019$1,410 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,609.12	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Heat	50c	2,628$1,307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,306.69	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Heat	49c	2,379$1,166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,165.77	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Magic	44c	2,000$880 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,120	367	41.4%152 W · 215 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1912…686cbacked Heat	52c	2,000$1,040 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,040	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e27…3cccbacked Heat	52c	2,000$1,040 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,040	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+1.6wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x710a…a5d8backed Magic	48c	2,000$960 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,040	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+1.6wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5442…6fa7backed Magic	48c	2,000$960 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,040	20	60%12 W · 8 L	+1.8wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c51…60bcbacked Magic	45c	1,980$891 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,089	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe971…350cbacked Heat	55c	1,980$1,089 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,089	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8367…90e9backed Heat	55c	1,950$1,073 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,072.5	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-2.1wins	-0.13per pick	50cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x088b…bce1backed Magic	45c	1,950$878 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,072.5	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Heat	50c	1,817$901 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$901.47	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked Heat	54c	1,800$972 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$972	57	50.9%29 W · 28 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Heat	53c	1,587$840 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$839.85	446	48%214 W · 232 L	-12.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Magic	50c	1,552$776 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$776	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Heat	51c	1,500$765 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$765	415	53.3%221 W · 194 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Heat	21c	1,187$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.65	146	34.9%51 W · 95 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Heat	48c	1,167$560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$560.16	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Heat	48c	1,145$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$549.6	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Heat	47c	1,140$532 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$532.32	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1375…4c69backed Heat	51c	705.88$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	118	39.8%47 W · 71 L	-9.2wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Heat	50c	700$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Heat	46c	618.94$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.71	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe81c…a724backed Magic	49c	550$269 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$280.5	21	71.4%15 W · 6 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	64cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e84…768ebacked Heat	52c	515.67$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268	136	44.9%61 W · 75 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9519…3b2ebacked Magic	54c	370.37$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.37	178	56.2%100 W · 78 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Heat	57c	354.52$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.83	950	49.4%469 W · 481 L	+10.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Heat	52c	284$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.63	857	42.6%365 W · 492 L	-15.6wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Heat	52c	213.04$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.16	526	43%226 W · 300 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Magic	47c	201.07$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.22	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Magic	43c	162.79$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.79	818	45.7%374 W · 444 L	+9.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Heat	51c	158$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.49	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65ea…223fbacked Heat	52c	153$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.56	84	50%42 W · 42 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f9…5526backed Heat	51c	148$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.48	76	51.3%39 W · 37 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed Heat	52c	131$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.12	163	39.3%64 W · 99 L	-10.2wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4915…60f2backed Magic	50c	125$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.5	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9270…7c9ebacked Heat	48c	119.23$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.23	114	45.6%52 W · 62 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc87b…51d4backed Heat	53c	113.21$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	210	55.2%116 W · 94 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11a5…8507backed Heat	76c	100$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.65	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.10per pick	64cpaid	-14%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Heat	57c	100$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.8	500	47.2%236 W · 264 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Magic	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	612	53.1%325 W · 287 L	-20.0wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d3…e601backed Heat	53c	90.06$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.73	135	50.4%68 W · 67 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc49c…6dcabacked Heat	52c	85$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.2	79	51.9%41 W · 38 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Magic	45c	83.33$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.97	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed Heat	42c	81.67$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.03	185	54.1%100 W · 85 L	+8.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Magic	48c	72$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.44	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc54f…dce8backed Magic	47c	68.1$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.09	634	27.3%173 W · 461 L	-19.7wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddf6…9bd5backed Magic	48c	67$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.84	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-14%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Magic	24c	65$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.4	2,169	40.8%885 W · 1,284 L	-8.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb966…cac6backed Magic	48c	62.5$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.5	253	51%129 W · 124 L	-6.5wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cdb…7a7abacked Magic	46c	56$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.24	58	44.8%26 W · 32 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7cd…0888backed Heat	54c	56$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.24	177	44.1%78 W · 99 L	-7.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9a7…261bbacked Magic	49c	53$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.03	42	42.9%18 W · 24 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x92bf…0297backed Magic	48c	49$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.48	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+2.2wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x165d…28e0backed Heat	53c	47.04$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.73	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	+20%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4669…785ebacked Heat	52c	47$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.44	47	57.4%27 W · 20 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Heat	54c	43.07$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.17	762	47.1%359 W · 403 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ee…5c69backed Magic	47c	42.55$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.55	141	37.6%53 W · 88 L	-11.2wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa024…4929backed Heat	54c	42$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.68	60	58.3%35 W · 25 L	+4.9wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xac7a…414fbacked Magic	49c	41$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.91	23	65.2%15 W · 8 L	+3.1wins	+0.13per pick	52cpaid	+30.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x480a…e3c9backed Magic	49c	41$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.91	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	-4.3wins	-0.15per pick	51cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd0f0…10afbacked Heat	35c	40$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bdf…9652backed Heat	50c	38$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	183	57.4%105 W · 78 L	+10.3wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x58b7…103cbacked Heat	54c	37.39$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.1	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a05…0329backed Heat	48c	33.32$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.99	64	34.4%22 W · 42 L	-5.4wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Magic	78c	30$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.6	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7e8…c457backed Heat	50c	29.55$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.69	43	48.8%21 W · 22 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-13%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15b7…7fd0backed Magic	48c	28$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.56	38	63.2%24 W · 14 L	+4.3wins	+0.11per pick	52cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7f33…8f17backed Magic	49c	27$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.77	43	51.2%22 W · 21 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Heat	54c	25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.38	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84c6…f8afbacked Magic	48c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.48	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-3.6wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf275…7050backed Heat	56c	23.21$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	79	55.7%44 W · 35 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3f53…1ddcbacked Magic	48c	23$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.96	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	-3.4wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-24%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x97de…15eabacked Magic	48c	21$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.92	41	51.2%21 W · 20 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x426a…128bbacked Heat	50c	20.34$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.17	87	25.3%22 W · 65 L	-8.7wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfcad…0a68backed Heat	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5093…dee4backed Heat	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	102	55.9%57 W · 45 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Magic (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event