TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Magic: O/U 235.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$169,473
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$171,405

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $169,473 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdbad…9c95backed Over49c100,375$49,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,179.976352.4%33 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Under51c94,351$48,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,294.731,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Under51c9,804$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,803.9276746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over50c8,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0001,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Under50c4,718$2,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,35969852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under50c4,516$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,26612341.5%51 W · 72 L-8.6wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf5d…7253backed Over49c4,500$2,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,204.9811242.9%48 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7104…afefbacked Under51c3,955$2,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,947.173073.3%22 W · 8 L+6.4wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+47.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x535b…25a9backed Over51c3,931$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00012555.2%69 W · 56 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over49c3,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4702,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Under51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4701,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed Under50c2,430$1,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,21513063.8%83 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over50c2,206$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100.52,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.781,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over49c1,768$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.679,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under48c1,353$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.728,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b23…e20fbacked Under51c1,302$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.9849938.9%194 W · 305 L-23.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Over51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51022053.6%118 W · 102 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Over50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5009649%47 W · 49 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27ac…188dbacked Under50c644.85$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.432763%17 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over49c612$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.882,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d25…132bbacked Over49c610.2$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae53…d80bbacked Under51c600$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29440952.1%213 W · 196 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d4b…a250backed Under50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30034447.4%163 W · 181 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb09…1bd1backed Over49c559.44$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.13616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-73.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over50c518.96$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.483,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Over49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24572647.7%346 W · 380 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d9d…992bbacked Over50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25011834.7%41 W · 77 L-9.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc6b4…1014backed Over49c457.14$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2244729.8%14 W · 33 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-16.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked Over63c429.98$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9519…3b2ebacked Over50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20017856.2%100 W · 78 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f5f…2348backed Over50c390$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1952937.9%11 W · 18 L-5.4wins-0.19per pick57cpaid-29.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Under52c375$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18061740.7%251 W · 366 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2de3…b690backed Under51c367.41$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.03475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+47.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under49c335$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.82,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dd4…ebc4backed Over50c312$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.125324.5%13 W · 40 L-7.4wins-0.14per pick38cpaid-37.3%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x6b11…06bcbacked Under49c300$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Over49c299.92$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.9636351.2%186 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Under42c260$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15067921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c36…5fd6backed Over50c244.42$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.2830%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Under50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10078652.4%412 W · 374 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a2d…4f43backed Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10022850.9%116 W · 112 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc63b…f88ebacked Under41c200$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1182646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10035739.8%142 W · 215 L-25.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Under49c197$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.4762541.9%262 W · 363 L-32.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x10a8…8629backed Over51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under49c189.62$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.811,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x63ac…1494backed Over49c163.12$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.93520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-60%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Under51c144.51$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.552643%226 W · 300 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x848d…d48cbacked Over50c127.15$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd995…9bcbbacked Under49c122.45$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.452755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa198…9601backed Under50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6016346.6%76 W · 87 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under49c119$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.691,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x474b…c5b1backed Under51c115.8$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.749050%45 W · 45 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09e3…cf81backed Under51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4918955%104 W · 85 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc483…8ac8backed Under52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482665.4%17 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+19.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Under49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5165855.6%366 W · 292 L+27.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66fe…e123backed Over49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4918656.5%105 W · 81 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d56…0ba5backed Over49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499647.9%46 W · 50 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76d4…3ad4backed Over48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48825%2 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-67.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Over49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4943348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70df…bca8backed Under51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0432750.2%164 W · 163 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4ed…b35abacked Under51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.043470.6%24 W · 10 L+8.1wins+0.24per pick47cpaid+67.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x0765…a6f6backed Over50c82.93$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6530%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0039…046ebacked Over50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0338…4f11backed Under51c76.34$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.547248.6%35 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bd7…5403backed Over49c70$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Over49c61.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3091746.9%430 W · 487 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01fa…c2edbacked Under46c60$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.417447.7%83 W · 91 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1228…c4fabacked Over50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301020%2 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-62%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3424…d731backed Under51c58.82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.82742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc947…a8bebacked Under51c57.8$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.32450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc32e…203dbacked Under50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256050%30 W · 30 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-15.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf4f1…6349backed Under51c47.06$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0617350.9%88 W · 85 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x71c2…5c3bbacked Over50c46.06$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd5c…8ae8backed Under51c41.96$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.562948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6edb…6089backed Under51c41.96$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.565743.9%25 W · 32 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked Over49c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.619756.3%111 W · 86 L+8.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7c6…5210backed Over50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208851.1%45 W · 43 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1612…9dedbacked Over49c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbca…8107backed Under50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64b8…a4a5backed Over50c39.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fb4…8830backed Under51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2220241.1%83 W · 119 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde4a…e7d1backed Over50c38.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddff…b4b1backed Over50c35.53$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa64…eb55backed Over50c35.41$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8230%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5a5…fb44backed Under52c35.1$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.912561.6%77 W · 48 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88dc…f050backed Over50c33.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cca…9200backed Over51c33.45$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5f0…3c8ebacked Over51c33.45$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b87…dec4backed Over50c32.91$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f2d…755abacked Over50c32.21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a99…5b5dbacked Over50c28.02$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe947…2cf3backed Under50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1084957.6%489 W · 360 L-52.1wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-9.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.81,69544.7%758 W · 937 L-30.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5093…dee4backed Over50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010255.9%57 W · 45 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5dd…490bbacked Under50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1012654.8%69 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.