NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-3.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4995cd6bd7b5e4d1d57445243fcf10d5a4db2bca3ea4bc8562834c0eba06b84

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Magicof Magic, Heat
Resolved: Dec 9, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $13,222
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $13,370

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,222 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa6a8…5009backed Magic	52c	7,111$3,693 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,417.45	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Heat	49c	4,643$2,275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,275.31	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Magic	41c	3,419$1,392 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,027.06	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Heat	47c	1,915$895 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$895.34	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dcf…146ebacked Heat	59c	1,238$730 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$730.24	181	40.3%73 W · 108 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Heat	59c	1,074$633 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$633.37	256	42.6%109 W · 147 L	-9.9wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Heat	60c	682$409 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$409.2	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Heat	59c	500$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295	956	41.7%399 W · 557 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Magic	53c	353.68$187 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$166.64	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc87b…51d4backed Heat	60c	333.33$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	210	55.2%116 W · 94 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Heat	46c	246.71$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.49	526	43%226 W · 300 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb116…940abacked Heat	53c	200$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	126	55.6%70 W · 56 L	-8.1wins	-0.06per pick	62cpaid	-12%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x277e…1cfabacked Magic	39c	172$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.92	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc192…3157backed Heat	61c	167$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.87	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb82d…5d1ebacked Heat	58c	157$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.06	94	46.8%44 W · 50 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8748…e745backed Magic	39c	157$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.77	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.2wins	+0.60per pick	40cpaid	+150.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb44…0df6backed Magic	39c	154$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.94	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd879…0831backed Heat	61c	148$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.28	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	55cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c5a…15d9backed Heat	61c	147$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.67	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x216f…9b1ebacked Heat	59c	111$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.49	63	49.2%31 W · 32 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa5f…3de3backed Heat	58c	106$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.48	72	47.2%34 W · 38 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4209…7582backed Heat	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	332	35.5%118 W · 214 L	-27.4wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Magic	41c	78.5$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.17	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Magic	41c	78$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.02	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1313…866abacked Magic	41c	67$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.53	46	52.2%24 W · 22 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x309d…3a8abacked Heat	59c	58$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.22	65	41.5%27 W · 38 L	-5.6wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x075a…8d34backed Heat	53c	56.34$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.86	128	58.6%75 W · 53 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78a4…05afbacked Magic	42c	53$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.74	32	50%16 W · 16 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8c…686fbacked Magic	20c	50$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	244	9.4%23 W · 221 L	-27.5wins	-0.11per pick	21cpaid	-72.3%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8358…956bbacked Magic	42c	49$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.66	41	51.2%21 W · 20 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd43a…f530backed Magic	42c	43$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.94	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x597f…e9cfbacked Magic	42c	38.7$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.51	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4f9…5526backed Heat	57c	33$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.81	76	51.3%39 W · 37 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc427…ee41backed Heat	59c	30$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.7	47	57.4%27 W · 20 L	+3.1wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f7a…6563backed Heat	59c	30$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.7	52	53.8%28 W · 24 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc856…0aa5backed Magic	42c	30$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.4	34	50%17 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce96…ff5cbacked Magic	43c	26$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.82	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe11a…d47ebacked Magic	42c	24$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.92	42	42.9%18 W · 24 L	-3.4wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd854…924fbacked Heat	59c	23$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.57	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-3.3wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Magic (-3.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event