NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Magic: 1H O/U 119.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2e474ccc3688a78b5a3efe836afa4140755f64af71aff36d1c4fe8df603291d

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 9, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $5,959
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $6,273

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,959 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x535b…25a9backed Over	57c	3,515$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	125	55.2%69 W · 56 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	43c	2,026$870 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,156.2	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	44c	760.3$334 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$426.66	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Under	43c	622.15$268 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$354.63	446	54.3%242 W · 204 L	+21.5wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9519…3b2ebacked Over	56c	360.22$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	178	56.2%100 W · 78 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3df8…3ee8backed Under	47c	320$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170	59	52.5%31 W · 28 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under	44c	300$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1393…8392backed Under	49c	225$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.75	90	48.9%44 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under	44c	198.61$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.6	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Over	56c	185$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103	589	51.3%302 W · 287 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x319f…63f4backed Under	49c	178$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.78	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf0…f708backed Over	51c	164$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.64	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.21per pick	54cpaid	+36.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a82…b6bdbacked Over	57c	95.69$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	82	51.2%42 W · 40 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37bb…c71fbacked Under	49c	95$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.45	41	46.3%19 W · 22 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x480a…e3c9backed Over	51c	86$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.86	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	-4.3wins	-0.15per pick	51cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcf92…4bfdbacked Over	52c	77$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.04	60	51.7%31 W · 29 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9270…7c9ebacked Under	42c	76.55$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.4	114	45.6%52 W · 62 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x470e…07c0backed Under	49c	75$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.25	73	53.4%39 W · 34 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5b1…042fbacked Over	51c	74$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.74	36	50%18 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e66…921dbacked Under	49c	71$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.21	38	63.2%24 W · 14 L	+4.9wins	+0.13per pick	50cpaid	+23.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x68e8…4facbacked Over	51c	65$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.15	50	48%24 W · 26 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bf2…6640backed Over	51c	57$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.07	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x66f7…2894backed Over	58c	42$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.36	29	58.6%17 W · 12 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27ed…57ebbacked Under	44c	39$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.84	73	61.6%45 W · 28 L	+9.6wins	+0.13per pick	48cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcd53…a861backed Under	42c	35$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.3	63	49.2%31 W · 32 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc9db…ab38backed Over	58c	32$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.56	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9a2…218cbacked Over	51c	32$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.32	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-3.3wins	-0.17per pick	54cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e5d…e5bfbacked Over	51c	31$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.81	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-2.0wins	-0.15per pick	50cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under	43c	30$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.1	539	51.6%278 W · 261 L	+20.3wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa49…949ebacked Under	49c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.3	61	60.7%37 W · 24 L	+6.5wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x749b…48d8backed Over	58c	30$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.28	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e02…c5f2backed Over	58c	29$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.82	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	-4.7wins	-0.16per pick	52cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Over	54c	28.25$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.25	635	55.6%353 W · 282 L	+9.5wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e8…441fbacked Over	51c	28$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.28	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Under	44c	26$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.62	1,132	17%192 W · 940 L	+2.5wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Over	56c	18.28$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.24	180	53.3%96 W · 84 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Heat vs. Magic: 1H O/U 119.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event