TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will Aztec launch a token in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$956,046
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$843,618

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $956,046 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 502 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x63c2…2c46backed No52c64,078$33,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,901.512100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d58…4085backed Yes37c45,448$16,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,705.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes72c41,382$29,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,801.984544.4%20 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x400f…d4e5backed Yes9c38,399$3,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,605.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfeb…c3c2backed Yes22c36,425$8,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,113.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef94…f8c4backed No71c34,916$24,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,291.23756.8%21 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ba2…f5fcbacked Yes44c27,369$12,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,077.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8506…10eabacked No70c19,256$13,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,797.03475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+22.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No42c18,128$7,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,541.623841.2%98 W · 140 L+25.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+30.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x02e4…f0aebacked No67c15,820$10,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,160.992142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0a…9564backed Yes37c13,607$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes1c13,459$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.99190%0 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8163…1ce8backed Yes3c11,541$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002330.4%7 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+53.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x233d…3018backed Yes3c10,871$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2453…9fb2backed Yes27c10,237$2,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,782.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01b7…41ccbacked Yes20c10,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fd4…5830backed Yes9c9,860$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18dc…5e90backed No36c9,236$3,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,947.981457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa133…b362backed Yes17c8,159$1,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,347.6714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-76.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a7d…0bf1backed Yes26c8,076$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,099.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01eb…f637backed Yes49c7,998$3,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,888.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b7b…265ebacked No73c7,909$5,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,130.122100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x108d…508abacked Yes42c7,748$3,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,289.364938.8%19 W · 30 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f38…192dbacked No77c7,460$5,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,695.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7860…4694backed Yes22c7,420$1,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,611.731330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e3…2f87backed Yes42c7,296$3,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,032.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b5e…5428backed Yes37c7,059$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,599.9620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb47…709dbacked No72c7,000$5,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,960650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f61…2d0fbacked Yes22c6,734$1,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,49410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes9c6,500$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.334520%9 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-37.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bad…43babacked Yes20c6,226$1,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,228.231533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c5,637$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.311424.2%6 W · 136 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes10c5,470$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.611735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+103.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3057…7a96backed Yes78c5,396$4,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,198.785937.3%22 W · 37 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1406…84e8backed Yes8c5,333$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x001e…b3afbacked Yes26c5,215$1,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,330.52837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x493d…538cbacked Yes66c5,087$3,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,372.9760%0 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5fe7…44a2backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103534.3%12 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-27.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca7…4428backed No31c4,969$1,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,428.1683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.48per pick35cpaid+175.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc96a…2043backed Yes16c4,696$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0df0…6979backed No76c4,500$3,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0803444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes10c4,429$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.787663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x544e…9c20backed No27c4,383$1,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,198.72633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe00…5606backed Yes28c4,365$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.39450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-26.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06cc…0b12backed Yes1c4,259$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43fd…8dbfbacked Yes27c4,228$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,144.330%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6503…09f6backed Yes10c4,100$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4181020%2 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6948…136cbacked Yes36c4,056$1,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,470.6450%0 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xab3e…c245backed Yes29c4,000$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,155520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-65%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc632…331dbacked Yes27c3,912$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6100…46aebacked Yes3c3,864$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.471315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-75.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0284…acbabacked No78c3,826$2,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-36.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb39d…afc4backed Yes27c3,769$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,032.4760%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes6c3,709$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x802b…8548backed Yes26c3,633$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.32333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e6…58c9backed Yes33c3,617$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,182.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x174e…b3c0backed Yes35c3,598$1,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,245.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes61c3,563$2,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,166.242236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-32.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe735…5090backed Yes32c3,546$1,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,147.51250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3737…bfaebacked No30c3,532$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,472.42250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed No24c3,372$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,570.336116.4%10 W · 51 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+95.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes12c3,364$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.842377.2%17 W · 220 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4790…10e8backed No30c3,340$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,339.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+234%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6594…9a61backed Yes14c3,335$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.72060%12 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+13.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9ec5…5629backed Yes31c3,259$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc693…6bc3backed Yes31c3,185$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd49a…9805backed Yes38c3,182$1,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,198.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x27ee…a1debacked No70c3,148$2,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes3c3,131$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.41631.3%5 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.17per pick14cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4537…fd02backed Yes31c3,104$947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946.71145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2910…9b5dbacked Yes30c2,956$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69a4…4354backed No63c2,929$1,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,072.81450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6815…c01fbacked Yes27c2,703$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf793…0d93backed No72c2,698$1,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4b1…e4cfbacked No64c2,667$1,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$973.522100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8a6…eb5ebacked Yes30c2,660$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8998…cdf3backed Yes19c2,480$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.53837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48f7…b1b2backed Yes36c2,427$883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883.02520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-33.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bdf…83a0backed Yes28c2,386$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.511315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.27per pick42cpaid-77.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked Yes41c2,316$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.235461.1%33 W · 21 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+22%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x16c3…d4b9backed No47c2,200$1,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1692528%7 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid+30.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8ce…253cbacked Yes45c2,157$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc9…f722backed Yes55c2,124$1,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,165.820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f6b…16a7backed Yes25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd49d…8ee0backed Yes13c2,000$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2581241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14b9…f378backed Yes76c1,992$1,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,521.552240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd17…dd0dbacked Yes27c1,985$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c70…ccbbbacked Yes25c1,960$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick38cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e59…8ec5backed Yes74c1,943$1,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,435.171233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8202…d78dbacked Yes28c1,904$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e46…0b9abacked Yes60c1,900$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-63.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d47…d584backed No77c1,898$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0159…4f56backed Yes1c1,832$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.891546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+464.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbafd…9b9dbacked No28c1,800$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,303.1425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes15c1,736$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.476123%14 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8e3…e39ebacked Yes31c1,721$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c7b…3d02backed Yes9c1,693$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.371010%1 W · 9 L-3.6wins-0.36per pick46cpaid-87.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes36c1,634$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.71519.8%5 W · 46 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-78.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes2c1,603$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.35773.9%3 W · 74 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-44.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes1c1,602$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.625111.8%6 W · 45 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick5cpaid-20%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.