Token Launches · resolved market
Will Aztec launch a token by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01020cdc5580a9ca300c377ba42c7cbd7961b09ac4f10a6d9615f34d3b64186b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $249,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $251,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $249,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ab3…b750backed No | 3c | 11,185$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.08 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f7…741cbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed No | 0c | 9,900$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…1131backed No | 0c | 8,518$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 0c | 8,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb82…2a3dbacked No | 1c | 7,742$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3662…e7a4backed No | 2c | 6,670$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 6,043$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.11 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x514b…ad6abacked No | 2c | 5,807$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.33 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd6…ff27backed No | 1c | 4,825$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 1c | 4,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd15…18eebacked No | 3c | 3,793$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 0c | 3,750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 1c | 3,644$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf56…6f8ebacked No | 1c | 3,536$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…f4bdbacked No | 6c | 2,850$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.18 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1a…b057backed No | 1c | 2,561$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…3e45backed No | 10c | 2,365$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.22 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaf…2833backed No | 3c | 2,257$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 1c | 2,252$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed No | 0c | 2,200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 5c | 2,171$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.83 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed No | 7c | 2,095$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.12 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…44a2backed No | 9c | 1,995$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0707…c2f2backed No | 2c | 1,950$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e3…d0debacked No | 1c | 1,900$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f9…c375backed No | 1c | 1,870$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab1…5ae4backed No | 10c | 1,836$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca57…0d7abacked No | 5c | 1,484$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad7…0971backed No | 1c | 1,313$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 2c | 1,179$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb837…20c3backed No | 2c | 1,004$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1e…bb8cbacked No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 903.16$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d59…9a12backed No | 1c | 849.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0055…b3aabacked No | 3c | 668.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a60…2a67backed No | 19c | 614.9$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.02 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 2c | 611.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed No | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf36c…49e5backed No | 8c | 363.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d09…0852backed No | 7c | 350.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd063…5ccdbacked No | 8c | 324.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9faa…5c70backed No | 9c | 306.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…34fdbacked No | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e2…06fbbacked No | 7c | 290.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…124abacked No | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +10.9wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7bab…8befbacked No | 5c | 244.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfee…e850backed No | 6c | 235.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0267…0fdbbacked No | 9c | 210.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb020…92f3backed No | 10c | 208.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…7345backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae5c…347fbacked No | 15c | 134.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…5bdfbacked No | 32c | 112.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f09…5cd0backed Yes | 68c | 102.33$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aztec launch a token by March 31, 2026?this page
- Will Aztec launch a token in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.