Tennis · resolved market
BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Jacob Fearnley vs Elias Ymer
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75088bd6f4ed05b0292789f77426756c286d9293f12319cec4bff26f07f968b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ymerof Fearnley, Ymer
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Ymer | 63c | 7,475$4,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,792.63 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Fearnley | 42c | 5,869$2,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,460.97 | 192 | 34.4%66 W · 126 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Ymer | 17c | 1,905$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,574.86 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Ymer | 39c | 1,518$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.81 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3b99backed Ymer | 38c | 1,500$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Ymer | 20c | 1,399$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Ymer | 39c | 1,067$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.35 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Ymer | 18c | 724$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.58 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Fearnley | 62c | 720$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.4 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Ymer | 20c | 700.42$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.77 | 11,877 | 43.3%5,143 W · 6,734 L | +19.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Fearnley | 38c | 536.3$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.09 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57f3…7304backed Fearnley | 80c | 500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…0b32backed Ymer | 21c | 500$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Ymer | 59c | 433.29$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.58 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Ymer | 17c | 356$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.25 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Ymer | 20c | 300$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Ymer | 45c | 198.91$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.91 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Fearnley | 15c | 171$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Ymer | 18c | 167.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.53 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6b…7b61backed Ymer | 69c | 157.72$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Fearnley | 43c | 134.41$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.84 | 6,798 | 36.9%2,507 W · 4,291 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Ymer | 17c | 120.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Ymer | 17c | 113.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.26 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Ymer | 54c | 108$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.46 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f8…2d91backed Ymer | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Ymer | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Ymer | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Ymer | 16c | 87.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.1 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Ymer | 20c | 80$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Ymer | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…05f5backed Ymer | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Ymer | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 317 | 55.8%177 W · 140 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f8…a24dbacked Fearnley | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…7f8bbacked Fearnley | 64c | 20.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b2…469abacked Fearnley | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3064…8943backed Ymer | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.