UFC · resolved market
Noche UFC: Sezinando vs. Donchenko
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x017649728cde7135f6feadf7addcccd147c98ff63694acb15c97dcdd67b1d988
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Donchenkoof Sezinando, Donchenko
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf838…2aa0backed Sezinando | 36c | 2,956$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Donchenko | 65c | 2,057$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.85 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Sezinando | 34c | 2,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Donchenko | 66c | 1,974$1,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.06 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Donchenko | 64c | 1,203$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.11 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed Sezinando | 34c | 1,200$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.99 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Sezinando | 33c | 818.08$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.97 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Donchenko | 67c | 746.27$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.27 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Sezinando | 33c | 607.45$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.46 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Donchenko | 62c | 532.36$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.3 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Donchenko | 67c | 530$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.9 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Sezinando | 33c | 500$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…5f5ebacked Donchenko | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed Donchenko | 67c | 479.78$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.92 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +9.5wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Sezinando | 38c | 400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4f…bdfabacked Sezinando | 37c | 399.98$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.99 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdea0…9f7abacked Donchenko | 69c | 321.74$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.74 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Donchenko | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcde4…f179backed Donchenko | 67c | 299.23$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.23 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea9…e3c0backed Sezinando | 31c | 250$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 37cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Sezinando | 34c | 200$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb406…4964backed Donchenko | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…8f05backed Sezinando | 38c | 159.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Donchenko | 66c | 128.35$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.64 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Sezinando | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ea…ae46backed Donchenko | 67c | 92.97$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Donchenko | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Sezinando | 38c | 89.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6b…d279backed Donchenko | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +31%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x431b…1d9cbacked Donchenko | 67c | 74.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Sezinando | 18c | 64.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 158 | 39.2%62 W · 96 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Sezinando | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…cf27backed Donchenko | 67c | 52.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Donchenko | 68c | 51.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Sezinando | 32c | 51.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…7f09backed Donchenko | 66c | 43.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Sezinando | 31c | 35.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Sezinando | 38c | 33.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3778…8604backed Donchenko | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Noche UFC: Sezinando vs. Donchenkothis page
- Noche UFC: Aguilar vs. GuruleAguilar won
- Noche UFC: Costa vs. CoriaCoria won
- Noche UFC: Font vs. MartinezMartinez won
- Noche UFC: Garcia vs. GordonGarcia won
- Noche UFC: Gastelum vs. StoltzfusGastelum won
- Noche UFC: Hernandez vs. FerreiraHernandez won
- Noche UFC: Lopes vs. SilvaLopes won
- Noche UFC: Luna vs. LeLuna won
- Noche UFC: Medina vs. TodorovićTodorović won
- Noche UFC: Puelles vs. SilvaSilva won
- Noche UFC: Rendon vs. PereiraRendon won
- Noche UFC: Suarez vs. LemosSuarez won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.