UFC · resolved market
Noche UFC: Costa vs. Coria
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31c5f55a4cf2d01c1ec1077927fa742c8e08b63525bb0917326e2a25115387bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Coriaof Costa, Coria
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,633
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,633 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Coria | 65c | 9,099$5,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,158.65 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Costa | 35c | 9,021$3,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,164.82 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39cb…46e8backed Costa | 76c | 4,928$3,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,736.29 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Coria | 26c | 4,100$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,035.03 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Coria | 24c | 3,146$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,391.12 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Costa | 74c | 2,194$1,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,621.48 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Coria | 27c | 2,013$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,461.26 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Coria | 44c | 1,486$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.98 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Costa | 74c | 1,350$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Costa | 46c | 1,034$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.55 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae5…53c8backed Coria | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb406…4964backed Costa | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Costa | 62c | 1,000$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Coria | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Costa | 73c | 993.19$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.75 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Costa | 75c | 889.68$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb653…85a4backed Coria | 22c | 724.15$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.84 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Coria | 26c | 686.49$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Costa | 78c | 601.93$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.14 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Coria | 22c | 600$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Costa | 60c | 560$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.6 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Coria | 25c | 555.55$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.38 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Coria | 57c | 530$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.9 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9689…d875backed Costa | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Costa | 74c | 324.32$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Costa | 79c | 296.74$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.14 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe09f…4ad6backed Costa | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Costa | 71c | 235.76$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.19 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x146a…36fabacked Costa | 76c | 227.87$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.18 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fce…28f8backed Coria | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Coria | 56c | 161.38$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.01 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…aaadbacked Coria | 28c | 160$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…defdbacked Coria | 27c | 150$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +6.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Coria | 21c | 133.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.81 | 124 | 46.8%58 W · 66 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Coria | 24c | 131.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8d…e3ebbacked Costa | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4f…bdfabacked Coria | 20c | 124.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.51 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Costa | 19c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…8f05backed Costa | 67c | 104.34$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Coria | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad1…8c20backed Coria | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Costa | 40c | 87.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Coria | 28c | 78.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.57 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Coria | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x431b…1d9cbacked Costa | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Coria | 20c | 56.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…cf27backed Costa | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Costa | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Costa | 50c | 42.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…551dbacked Costa | 61c | 37.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Costa | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…0638backed Costa | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2283…8b71backed Costa | 63c | 23.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +40%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…07f1backed Costa | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3149…9762backed Costa | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d0…a4d3backed Costa | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 77cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Noche UFC: Costa vs. Coriathis page
- Noche UFC: Aguilar vs. GuruleAguilar won
- Noche UFC: Font vs. MartinezMartinez won
- Noche UFC: Garcia vs. GordonGarcia won
- Noche UFC: Gastelum vs. StoltzfusGastelum won
- Noche UFC: Hernandez vs. FerreiraHernandez won
- Noche UFC: Lopes vs. SilvaLopes won
- Noche UFC: Luna vs. LeLuna won
- Noche UFC: Medina vs. TodorovićTodorović won
- Noche UFC: Puelles vs. SilvaSilva won
- Noche UFC: Rendon vs. PereiraRendon won
- Noche UFC: Sezinando vs. DonchenkoDonchenko won
- Noche UFC: Suarez vs. LemosSuarez won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.