UFC · resolved market
Noche UFC: Gastelum vs. Stoltzfus
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc54df020320554481b3c4f9eb23e769c8e8cb44c99eeb06d6bcad1cd35b2315
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gastelumof Gastelum, Stoltzfus
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $478,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $474,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $478,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfaa…2813backed Gastelum | 68c | 395,555$268,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126,765.31 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked Stoltzfus | 32c | 152,200$48,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,704 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Stoltzfus | 32c | 130,073$41,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,623.43 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Stoltzfus | 29c | 34,449$10,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,125.42 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Stoltzfus | 32c | 27,500$8,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,875 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Gastelum | 67c | 22,710$15,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,463.84 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Stoltzfus | 32c | 20,000$6,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,400 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Stoltzfus | 32c | 15,550$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…e617backed Stoltzfus | 32c | 15,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Stoltzfus | 32c | 10,001$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,200.45 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Stoltzfus | 32c | 8,100$2,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,632 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Stoltzfus | 33c | 5,467$1,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,828.11 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…5781backed Stoltzfus | 35c | 4,230$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Stoltzfus | 33c | 3,436$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.51 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Stoltzfus | 35c | 3,318$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.72 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Stoltzfus | 33c | 3,200$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.99 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Stoltzfus | 33c | 3,000$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Gastelum | 65c | 2,511$1,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.27 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Gastelum | 66c | 2,500$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb653…85a4backed Stoltzfus | 33c | 2,416$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.64 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Stoltzfus | 8c | 2,319$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.19 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Stoltzfus | 34c | 2,127$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.11 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Stoltzfus | 36c | 2,065$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.25 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Gastelum | 63c | 1,727$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.53 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f05…c0b8backed Stoltzfus | 34c | 1,551$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.34 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Stoltzfus | 32c | 1,500$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Stoltzfus | 18c | 1,115$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.45 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Stoltzfus | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Stoltzfus | 32c | 937.5$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Stoltzfus | 32c | 872.18$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.1 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Gastelum | 68c | 861.78$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.77 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa941…ec2ebacked Gastelum | 67c | 858.73$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.38 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Stoltzfus | 38c | 765.16$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.8 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Stoltzfus | 32c | 744.2$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…c186backed Stoltzfus | 33c | 725.88$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.54 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…97bebacked Stoltzfus | 43c | 719.03$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.9 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Stoltzfus | 32c | 610.99$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.4 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Gastelum | 66c | 605$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Gastelum | 66c | 600$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae5…53c8backed Gastelum | 67c | 589$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.92 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Stoltzfus | 13c | 555.42$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.68 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Stoltzfus | 39c | 502.9$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.9 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Gastelum | 66c | 500$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…114dbacked Stoltzfus | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Gastelum | 72c | 495$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.65 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Stoltzfus | 33c | 435.2$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.92 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Gastelum | 70c | 399.99$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Gastelum | 69c | 397.13$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.14 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf5…ef29backed Stoltzfus | 32c | 375$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked Gastelum | 67c | 342.48$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.06 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Stoltzfus | 32c | 323$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.36 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Stoltzfus | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51e6…80d2backed Stoltzfus | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 139 | 40.3%56 W · 83 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Gastelum | 66c | 301$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.84 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Stoltzfus | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Gastelum | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Gastelum | 68c | 287$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.84 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Stoltzfus | 32c | 284.69$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Stoltzfus | 13c | 264.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…17bebacked Gastelum | 67c | 230$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Gastelum | 67c | 220$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.4 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Stoltzfus | 31c | 215.14$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.69 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Stoltzfus | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Stoltzfus | 33c | 205$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Gastelum | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Stoltzfus | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed Gastelum | 65c | 199.98$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +9.5wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Gastelum | 68c | 177.45$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.78 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Gastelum | 67c | 171.99$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8d…e3ebbacked Gastelum | 72c | 169.19$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x230a…2704backed Stoltzfus | 50c | 159.46$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.73 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Gastelum | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…7becbacked Stoltzfus | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Stoltzfus | 11c | 148$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Stoltzfus | 20c | 147.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…351dbacked Gastelum | 66c | 147.49$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Stoltzfus | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 166 | 55.4%92 W · 74 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d1…cd5ebacked Stoltzfus | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc485…948dbacked Gastelum | 68c | 143.22$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.83 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ff…5ec3backed Gastelum | 71c | 140.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Stoltzfus | 33c | 139.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59a6…2fa2backed Gastelum | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ea…afc6backed Gastelum | 67c | 131.34$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Stoltzfus | 46c | 111.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Stoltzfus | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Stoltzfus | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Gastelum | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Stoltzfus | 33c | 98.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Gastelum | 53c | 98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.06 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x211a…9613backed Stoltzfus | 32c | 96.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d94…92c9backed Stoltzfus | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Stoltzfus | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0174…f66fbacked Gastelum | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…05e0backed Gastelum | 67c | 68.85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc35…d905backed Stoltzfus | 32c | 65.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…defdbacked Stoltzfus | 32c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +6.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Stoltzfus | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43e7…1f62backed Stoltzfus | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…cf27backed Gastelum | 67c | 52.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…fabbbacked Gastelum | 67c | 51.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Noche UFC: Gastelum vs. Stoltzfusthis page
- Noche UFC: Aguilar vs. GuruleAguilar won
- Noche UFC: Costa vs. CoriaCoria won
- Noche UFC: Font vs. MartinezMartinez won
- Noche UFC: Garcia vs. GordonGarcia won
- Noche UFC: Hernandez vs. FerreiraHernandez won
- Noche UFC: Lopes vs. SilvaLopes won
- Noche UFC: Luna vs. LeLuna won
- Noche UFC: Medina vs. TodorovićTodorović won
- Noche UFC: Puelles vs. SilvaSilva won
- Noche UFC: Rendon vs. PereiraRendon won
- Noche UFC: Sezinando vs. DonchenkoDonchenko won
- Noche UFC: Suarez vs. LemosSuarez won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.