UFC · resolved market
Noche UFC: Suarez vs. Lemos
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed5574a34f1e44ba8532478709e42c21299741b4c4912ac177280c19da344a38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Suarezof Suarez, Lemos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Lemos | 21c | 19,246$4,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,041.66 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Suarez | 79c | 12,746$10,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,676.66 | 57 | 75.4%43 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Lemos | 1c | 9,609$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.09 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Suarez | 79c | 8,000$6,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Lemos | 21c | 6,337$1,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,330.74 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Suarez | 80c | 6,258$4,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,263.68 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Lemos | 23c | 4,109$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.8 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Lemos | 22c | 3,644$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…e617backed Suarez | 77c | 2,728$2,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1b…724fbacked Suarez | 80c | 2,500$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 49 | 81.6%40 W · 9 L | +7.8wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed Lemos | 20c | 2,044$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.26 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked Lemos | 21c | 2,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Lemos | 21c | 1,995$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.93 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa941…ec2ebacked Suarez | 79c | 1,976$1,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f05…c0b8backed Lemos | 20c | 1,713$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.5 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Suarez | 77c | 1,548$1,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb653…85a4backed Lemos | 20c | 1,350$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Lemos | 5c | 1,145$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Suarez | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Lemos | 11c | 738.25$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.68 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Suarez | 78c | 700$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Suarez | 77c | 594.1$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.71 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Lemos | 7c | 510$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Suarez | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Lemos | 20c | 500$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Lemos | 20c | 452.78$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.56 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf5…ef29backed Lemos | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8d…e3ebbacked Suarez | 79c | 379.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Suarez | 79c | 368.36$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.66 | 122 | 62.3%76 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Suarez | 80c | 350$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Lemos | 21c | 347.74$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.63 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Lemos | 20c | 330$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf838…2aa0backed Suarez | 79c | 316.18$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4f…bdfabacked Lemos | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Suarez | 79c | 293.39$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.61 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Lemos | 19c | 231.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0635…0119backed Lemos | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Lemos | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x257d…aac8backed Lemos | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb406…4964backed Suarez | 78c | 150.64$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Suarez | 78c | 135.68$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…ec72backed Lemos | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Lemos | 19c | 120.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 124 | 46.8%58 W · 66 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Lemos | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…8cb6backed Suarez | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Lemos | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Lemos | 20c | 91.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Lemos | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…8f05backed Lemos | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Lemos | 19c | 65.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Lemos | 19c | 65.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Suarez | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 166 | 55.4%92 W · 74 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Suarez | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Lemos | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 211 | 44.1%93 W · 118 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Suarez | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9d…c956backed Lemos | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 229 | 53.3%122 W · 107 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x749e…8626backed Suarez | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…e6debacked Suarez | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…07f1backed Suarez | 80c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3778…8604backed Suarez | 79c | 20.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c73…2759backed Suarez | 79c | 17.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…0de1backed Suarez | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb038…82d1backed Suarez | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Noche UFC: Suarez vs. Lemosthis page
- Noche UFC: Aguilar vs. GuruleAguilar won
- Noche UFC: Costa vs. CoriaCoria won
- Noche UFC: Font vs. MartinezMartinez won
- Noche UFC: Garcia vs. GordonGarcia won
- Noche UFC: Gastelum vs. StoltzfusGastelum won
- Noche UFC: Hernandez vs. FerreiraHernandez won
- Noche UFC: Lopes vs. SilvaLopes won
- Noche UFC: Luna vs. LeLuna won
- Noche UFC: Medina vs. TodorovićTodorović won
- Noche UFC: Puelles vs. SilvaSilva won
- Noche UFC: Rendon vs. PereiraRendon won
- Noche UFC: Sezinando vs. DonchenkoDonchenko won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.